水上重大溢油事故围油栏鲁棒优化调度研究  

Robust optimal arrangement of oil containment boomsfor major marine oil spill accident

作　　者：杜剑 王军 王美蓉 吴暖 DU Jian;WANG Jun;WANG Meirong;WU Nuan(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Dalian Jiaotong University,Dalian 116028,China;College of Transportation Engineering,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,China)

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116028 [2]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《中国航海》2023年第2期113-119,共7页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(13BGJ045);辽宁省社会科学规划基金青年项目(L20CGL006)

摘　　要：在水上溢油清污中,围控不同敏感资源的围油栏应急调运要求差异较大,每种环境敏感资源可以被视为一个典型清污情景。在溢油最大污染范围内存在多种溢油清污情景,但受水上不确定性风流场的影响,每种清污情景的发生概率未知。为了使最坏清污情景下的应急调度效果尽量理想,文章构建了围油栏鲁棒优化调度模型,决策各应急反应基地围油栏运输船的调运数量与调运去向。算例分析验证了文章模型有效性,研究结果表明:针对特定清污情景的应急调运要求所制定的优化调度方案,当所应对情景发生变动时应急调度效果会下降;鲁棒调度方案能有效地应对清污情景变动,可以最大限度地规避应急调度方案严重失效的风险。Each environment sensitive resources needs oil containment booms specially designed for it.So,the allocation and transport arrangement have to change according to particular situation.Each of the environment sensitive resources can been treated as one of typical scenarios.There might exist multiple scenarios in a widely extended pollution site.The probability of a scenario happening is unknown because of the uncertainty of wind-current field.The robust optimal arrangement model for oil containment booms is designed for helping to decide the type and number of booms to be transported from emergency response bases and the location to be sent to.The effectiveness of the model is verified through example calculation.The Research shows that the effectiveness of an emergency arrangement for a particular scenario will degrade when the scenario changes but the robustness of the design can alleviate the degrading in the greatest degree.

关 键 词：水上溢油事故 风流场不确定 清污情景集合 鲁棒调度方案 应急调度效果 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]