地震流体地球化学短临预测研究进展与展望  

RESEARCH PROGRESS AND PROSPECT OF SEISMIC FLUID GEOCHEMISTRY IN SHORT-IMMINENT EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

作　　者：李营[1] 方震[2,3,4] 张晨蕾 李继业 鲍志诚 张翔 刘兆飞 周晓成 陈志[1] 杜建国[1] LI Ying;FANG Zhen;ZHANG Chen-lei;LI Ji-ye;BAO Zhi-cheng;ZHANG Xiang;LIU Zhao-fei;ZHOU Xiao-cheng;CHEN Zhi;DU Jian-guo(Key Laboratory of Earthquake Prediction,Institute of Earthquake Forecasting,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100036,China;Anhui Earthquake Agency,Hefei 230031,China;Mengcheng National Geophysical Observatory,Mengcheng 233500,China;Anhui Key Laboratory of Subsurface Exploration and Earthquake Hazard Risk Prevention(in prep.),Hefei 230031,China;Shaanxi Earthquake Agency,Xi′an 710068,China;Heilongjiang Earthquake Agency,Harbin 150090,China;Jiangxi Earthquake Agency,Nanchang 330026,China;Yunnan Earthquake Agency,Kunming 650224,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地震预测研究所,中国地震局地震预测重点实验室,北京100036 [2]安徽省地震局,合肥230031 [3]蒙城地球物理国家野外科学观测研究站,蒙城233500 [4]地下结构探测与震灾风险防范安徽省重点实验室(筹),合肥230031 [5]陕西省地震局,西安710068 [6]黑龙江省地震局,哈尔滨150090 [7]江西省地震局,南昌330026 [8]云南省地震局,昆明650224

出　　处：《地震地质》2023年第3期593-621,共29页Seismology and Geology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42073063);联合国教科文组织国际地球科学计划(IGCP-724);安徽蒙城地球物理国家野外科学观测研究站联合开放基金项目(MENGO-202013,MENGO-202305)共同资助。

摘　　要：建立地震短临预测方法是减轻地震灾害损失的最有效手段,也是科学难题。流体是地球内部最为主动、活跃的组分,携带了地球各圈层的地球化学信息。地震流体地球化学的组成和变化对地下物理化学条件的改变响应灵敏,是指示地震和构造活动的有效指标。文中综述了国内外流体地球化学短临预测机理的研究进展,介绍了国内外已经建立的流体地球化学地震短临预测模型和方法,利用《中国震例》数据对主要预测模型和方法进行了检验分析,评述了各方法的适用性和效能。结合团队已有的工作基础,提出了基于前兆机理进行地震流体地球化学短临预测的思路,并对中国地震科学实验场地球化学子系统的地震短临预测研究和应用进行了展望。Establishing the method of short-imminent earthquake prediction is the most effective way to reduce losses caused by earthquakes and is also an important scientific issue.In the 1960s and 1970s,research on earthquake prediction was carried out successively in China and other countries in the world,and after over 50 years of development,abundant precursor observation data and earthquake cases have been accumulated,and significant progress has been made in the research of formation mechanisms of precursor anomalies and prediction methods.Fluid is the most active component in the earth s interior,and the fluids in various layers of the earth often carry characteristic geochemical information.The composition and variation of seismic fluid geochemistry are sensitive to changes of underground physical and chemical conditions,making them powerful indicators of seismic and tectonic activities.The formation mechanisms of fluid geochemical precursor anomalies mainly include liquid mixing,water-rock reaction,deep magma upwelling,seismic wave vibration,pore compression and pressure solubility mechanism.The fluid chemical anomalies associated with earthquakes can be attributed to the migration process of liquid mixing and the water-rock reaction mechanism caused by crustal stress changes.This paper systematically summarizes the empirical formulas on the duration of anomaly,earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance,as well as the seismic fluid geochemical models and methods for short-imminent prediction established both domestically and internationally.In addition,four types of seismic fluid geochemical techniques and methods currently used in earthquake situation consultation in China are described.Nine of the most widely used prediction methods are selected to inspect the twenty-seven cases of earthquakes containing water radon or gas radon anomalies in the Earthquake Cases of China from 1997 to 2020.Generally,these methods all show strong applicability.However,empirical formulas based on different regions of the world se

关 键 词：地震 流体地球化学 短临预测 

分 类 号：P315.724[天文地球—地震学] P315.75[天文地球—固体地球物理学]