CMIP6对三峡库区万州段降水和气温的模拟能力评估  

Evaluating the Ability of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Precipitation and Temperature in Wanzhou City in the Three Gorges Reservoir

作　　者：李佳文 周育琳 魏兴 范祖金 LI Jia-wen;ZHOU Yu-lin;WEI Xing;FANG Zu-jin(School of Civil Engineering,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404100,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院土木工程学院,重庆404100

出　　处：《长江科学院院报》2023年第7期32-40,共9页Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1392);重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJQN202201210,KJQN202101235)。

摘　　要：为了准确预估三峡库区未来的水文气象变化趋势,为库区水资源的合理分配提供科学依据,借助12种CMIP6全球气候模式数据和多模式集合MME,采用平均值分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、泰勒图分析法和TS评分法,分别从季节月平均气温和降水、突变年份和综合模拟能力评估全球气候模式在万州段的适应性。结果表明:①在降水模拟结果方面,三峡工程蓄水前模式ACCESS-CM2的模拟效果较好,蓄水后MME对降水的模拟效果较好;②在气温模拟结果方面,三峡工程蓄水前MME的模拟效果较好,蓄水后模式ACCESS-CM2的模拟效果较好;③综合来看,模式ACCESS-CM2对蓄水前后气温和降水的模拟效果最好。To accurately predict the hydrometeorological trends of the Three Gorges reservoir area and provide a scientific basis for rational allocation of water resources,we evaluate the adaptability of 12 CMIP6(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6)global climate models and a multi-model ensemble(MME)to the city of Wanzhou.The evaluation includes analysis of seasonal monthly average precipatation and air temperature,mutation years,and comprehensive simulation abilities using mean value analysis,Mann-Kendall tests,Taylor diagrams and Taylor scores.Our results show that:(1)ACCESS-CM2 models yield better precipitation simulation results prior to impoundment,while MME models show superior performance post-impoundment.(2)MME produces superior temperature simulation results before impoundment,while ACCESS-CM2 exhibits better performance after impoundment.(3)Overall,ACCESS-CM2 demonstrates the best temperature and precipitation simulation results both before and after impoundment.

关 键 词：气象模拟 CMIP6气候模式 平均值分析法 Mann-Kendall突变检验法 泰勒图分析法 三峡库区万州段 

分 类 号：P343[天文地球—水文科学]