房产税改革的经济与福利效应:基于异质性个体模型的研究  

Economic and Welfare Effects of Property Tax Reform:A Quantitative Study Based on a Heterogeneous Agent Model

作　　者：李博[1,2] 王霄[1] Li Bo;Wang Xiao

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]北京大学武汉人工智能研究院

出　　处：《世界经济》2023年第5期90-118,共29页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(项目号:72203005);北京大学—林肯研究院城市发展与土地政策研究中心2021-2022年度研究基金;北京大学高性能计算平台和北京大学经济学院中青年教师科研种子基金的资助与支持。

摘　　要：如何理解房产税在宏观经济运行中的作用和对微观家庭的异质性影响,对于中国的房产税改革非常重要。本文构建了一个包含异质性个体的世代交叠模型,量化分析了房产税改革对宏观经济运行和异质性微观个体福利的影响。研究表明,房产税改革的长期效果是优化居民资产结构、刺激消费、降低房价并显著提振实体经济。房产税改革带来了显著的福利改善,且对低收入群体福利改善最明显。然而,征收房产税在短期内会带来房价的快速下降和租金上升,高财富和住房资产较多的群体在改革当期甚至存在福利损失。当存在征收面积减免时,房产税改革对房地产市场和宏观经济的影响减弱,低收入群体更容易买房的同时伴随着消费的相对下降。Understanding the role of property tax in macro-economy and its heterogeneous impact on households is essential for property tax reform in China.This paper evaluates the reform of property tax by constructing an overlapping generations(OLG)model of heterogeneous agents with an incomplete market.To this end,a series of numerical experiments are implemented to analyse the potential property tax reform.The results show that the long-term effect of property tax reform is to optimise households’asset structure,stimulate consumption,lower housing prices and significantly boost the real economy.The welfare of poor households improves the most,while the welfare of rich households improves the least in the long-term.However,the imposition of the property tax leads to a sharp fall in housing prices and a sharp increase in rents,while wealthy groups with more housing assets may even suffer welfare losses in the short-term.The impact of property tax reform on the housing market and the macro-economy weakens when there is an exemption.Households are more determined to purchase housing in the critical area,and the poor may more easily acquire a house,which is accompanied by a relative decline in consumption.

关 键 词：房产税 异质性 世代交叠模型 福利分析 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F299.23