1951—2020年大理市极端气候事件变化特征  

Study on changing characteristics of extreme climate events from 1951 to 2020 in Dali City

作　　者：乌尔娜 陈凡 景元书[1,2] 谢新乔 杨继周 WU Erna;CHEN Fan;JING Yuanshu;XIE Xinqiao;YANG Jizhou(College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,Nanjing 210044,Jiangsu,China;Raw Materials Department of Hongta Tobacco Co.,Ltd.,Yuxi 653100,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044 [2]江苏省农业气象重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [3]红塔集团原料部,云南玉溪653100

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第5期1-14,共14页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：红塔烟草集团有限责任公司项目(S-6019001);国家自然科学基金项目(41575111)。

摘　　要：【目的】在全球变暖的背景下,频发的极端气候事件愈发影响着人类生活、社会经济发展等。大理市是极端天气和气象灾害的多发区,亟需系统研究其极端气候事件变化特征。【方法】以大理市1951—2020年逐日气象观测数据为基础,对16个极端气温指数和11个极端降水指数运用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Pettitt、滑动t检验(MTT)、集合经验模态分解(EEMD)等方法对其变化趋势、突变特征及多时间尺度变化周期展开研究。【结果】结果显示:1951—2020年间大理市极端暖事件指数(SU25、WSDI、TN90p、TX90p)和TNx变化趋势为显著上升,而极端冷事件指数(FD0、CSDI、TN10p、TX10p)变化趋势呈下降。极端降水指数中,R10、R1、Rx5day、PRCPTOT与CWD下降显著;Pettitt、M-K及MTT法均得出FD0、SU25、WSDI、TNx、TN10p、TN90p、TX90p、R1与R10有明显突变点;EEMD所得到的各分量和趋势项表示不同尺度下极端气温指数和极端降水指数的变化特征。其中,极端气温指数的强周期主要为准3 a/7 a年际尺度周期及准14 a/23 a/35 a/70 a年代际尺度周期,极端降水尺度的强周期主要为准3 a/4 a年际尺度周期和准35 a/70 a年代际尺度周期,均通过95%显著性检验。【结论】结果表明:大理市气温呈变暖趋势,降水呈减少趋势,整体呈现暖干化现象;大理市各极端气候指数的突变时间不一,无统一规律,极端气温事件突变多集中于21世纪初期,极端降水事件多集中于20世纪70年代及21世纪初期;EEMD方法可有效地提取大理市极端气候事件多尺度变化特征;气候暖干化现象可能会使大理农业生产、经济发展等面临严峻问题,因此当地有关部门需加强防范。本研究成果可为大理市防灾减灾、生态建设等提供科学参考。[Objective]In the context of global warming,extreme climate events occur frequently and have an increasing impact on human life and socio-economic development.As Dali City is an area where extreme weather and meteorological disasters occur frequently,it is urgent to study the characteristics of extreme climate events.[Methods]The daily meteorological data from 1951 to 2020 are selected.The changing trends,mutation time points and the periodic variations of multi-scale of 16 extreme temperature indexes and 11 extreme precipitation indexes are analyzed herein by means of linear tendency estimation,Mann Kendall mutation test,Pettitt,sliding t test(MTT)and ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD).[Results]The result show that:the extreme warm event indexes(SU25,WSDI,TN90p,TX90p)and TNx in Dali City exhibit significant trends of increase during the period of 1951~2020,while the extreme cold event indexes(FD0,CSDI,TN10p,TX10p)exhibit decreasing trends.Among the extreme precipitation indexes,R10,R1,Rx5day,PRCPTOT and CWD significantly decrease;FD0,SU25,WSDI,TNx,TN10p,TN90p,TX90p,R1 and R10 have obvious mutation points by Pettitt,M-K and MTT.From EEMD decomposition method,each component and trend component show the change of extreme temperature indexes and extreme precipitation indexes in different time scales,in which the strong periods of the extreme temperature indexes are mainly the quasi-3/7 a interannual scale periods and the quasi-14/23/35/70 a interdecadal scale periods,while the strong periods of the extreme precipitation scales are mainly the quasi-3/4 a interannual scale periods and the quasi-35/70 a interdecadal scale periods.All of these are passed through the relevant 95% significance tests.[Conclusion]The air temperature in Dali City exhibits a trend of increase,while the precipitation exhibits decreasing trends,and the whole area presents a trend of warming-drying.The mutation point of each extreme climate index is inconsistent in Dali City.Most of the mutations of the extreme temperature events occur

关 键 词：极端气候事件 集合经验模态分解(EEMD) 气候变化 极端气温指数 极端降水指数 大理市 全球气候变暖 Mann-Kendall突变检验 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]