对中国“未富先老”判断的新考察  

“Getting Old before Getting Rich”in China:A Re-examination

作　　者：林宝[1] Lin Bao(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Research Center on Population Ageing,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所、应对人口老龄化研究中心,北京100006

出　　处：《人口研究》2023年第3期3-16,共14页Population Research

摘　　要：在系统回顾“未富先老”判断产生以来的各种争论以及总结“未富先老”的不同内涵和判断方法的基础上,提出了一个更为直观的判断标准——人口老龄化水平与发展水平一致性指数。以此标准可以把世界各国(地区)分为3种类型:未富先老、老富基本协同、富先于老。基于《世界人口展望2022》和《人类发展报告2021/2022》中的相关数据对1990年以来中国“老”与“富”的关系进行分析,发现中国在1990年代就一直处于“未富先老”状态,但近年来这种状况正在改善。以人均国民收入代表“富”来分析中国“老”与“富”的关系能够发现,中国刚刚走出“未富先老”状态,进入“老富基本协同”状态;以人类发展指数代表“富”来分析中国“老”与“富”的关系则发现,中国正处于从“未富先老”状态向“老富基本协同”状态过渡的临界点。This article systematically reviews various debates on the judgment of“getting old before getting rich”and puts forward a more intuitive criterion:the index of consistency between population ageing and development level.According to this criterion,all countries and regions can be divided into three types:getting old before getting rich,basic coordination between being“old”and being“rich”,and getting rich before getting old.Based on the data of World Population Prospects 2022 and Human Development Report 2021/2022,we assess the relationship between being“old”and being“rich”in China since 1990 and find that China has been in the state of“getting old before getting rich”since 1990,but this situation has been changing in recent years.Using per capita national income as a representation of being“rich”shows that China is moving out of the state of“getting old before getting rich”and entering the state of basic coordination between being“old”and being“rich”.Using the human development index as a representation of being“rich”indicates that China is at the point of transition between the two states.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 发展水平 未富先老 老富基本协同 一致性指数 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] C924.24[社会学—人口学]