从战略集中到两线对抗:美国欧亚战略的转变  

From Strategic Concentration to Two-Front Confrontation:Changes in US Eurasian Strategy

作　　者：张一飞 Zhang Yifei

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院美国研究所,北京100007

出　　处：《国际论坛》2023年第4期48-62,156,157,共17页International Forum

摘　　要：战略集中原则是为维系国内政治经济稳定运行,要求主权国家避免同时在多个地区与一个以上以物质权力界定的国家形成多领域对抗关系的战略指导思想。在冷战中与冷战结束后的特定时期内,美国曾长期奉行战略集中原则,分别以“联中制苏”与“联俄制华”运筹欧亚战略。但自2017年以来,美国主要战略文件普遍对俄中两国采取敌视态度和敌对叙事,并提出同时打压两国的政策方案。特朗普与拜登政府也均在多个领域同时对俄中两国采取了高强度对抗措施。这种战略转变的主要原因在于,美国急于对冲国家认同下降、科技创新放缓和对手发展向好三种趋势对其霸权地位产生的消极影响。在旧战略被放弃的同时,美国新的欧亚战略同步蜕变而成,其直接目标是短时间内最大程度占据全球利益存量,不惜以战略失衡为代价延续霸权寿命。其战略途径主要包括投资自身、整合盟友和塑造认知。这一新欧亚战略有可能造成国际格局系统风险上升、世界发展与全球治理受阻、美国同盟体系利益分歧突显,并最终导致美国霸权加速衰落。The principle of strategic centralization is a strategic thought that requires a sovereign state to avoid multi-sphere confrontations with more than one state in multiple regions at the same time for the purpose of maintaining stable domestic political and economic stability.During the Cold War and for a period of time afterwards,the United States practiced strategic centralization in its Eurasian strategy,such as“balancing the Soviet Union with China”and“balancing China with Russia”.However,since 2017,major US strategic documents have generally adopted a hostile attitude and confrontational narrative towards both Russia and China,clearly proposing policy responses to the two powers.In addition,both the Trump and Biden administrations have taken tough measures to counter the two countries in multiple fields.This change is mainly attributable to US efforts to offset the negative impact of three factors on its hegemony:the decline of national identity,the slowdown of its technological innovation,and the positive turn in the development of US opponents.In place of the old strategy is a new US Eurasian strategy whose direct goal is to maximize its share of global interests in the short-term and to extend US hegemony at the cost of strategic imbalance.The strategic tools at its disposal mainly include domestic investment,integrating alliances and shaping perceptions.This new Eurasian strategy may increase the systemic risks of international politics,impede global development and global governance,accentuate the inconsistency of interests among US allies,eventually accelerating the decline of the US.

关 键 词：美国对外战略 战略集中原则 两线对抗 俄乌冲突 欧亚战略 中美关系 

分 类 号：D51[政治法律—政治学]