2005—2020年中国10~24岁人群自杀死亡率趋势:年龄—时期—队列模型分析  

Trends in suicide mortality among people aged 10-24 years in China from 2005 to 2020:an age-period-cohort modeling analysis

作　　者：熊越华 王慧豪 官越 卢丹丹 格桑曲珍 袁靓 王威 燕虹[2] 俞斌[2,4] Xiong Yuehua;Wang Huihao;Guan Yue;Lu Dandan;Gesangquzhen;Yuan Liang;Wang Wei;Yan Hong;YuBin(Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan 430071,China;School of Public Health,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430071,China;School of Public Health,Xuzhou Medical University,Xuzhou 221004,China;Population and Health Research Center,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430071,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉市疾病预防控制中心,武汉430071 [2]武汉大学公共卫生学院,武汉430071 [3]徐州医科大学公共卫生学院,徐州221004 [4]武汉大学人口与健康研究中心,武汉430071

出　　处：《广西医科大学学报》2023年第4期676-681,共6页Journal of Guangxi Medical University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.82204073);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(No.22YJC840037);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(No.2042022kf1032)。

摘　　要：目的:探究2005—2020年我国10~24岁人群自杀死亡变化趋势,为科学预防年轻群体自杀提供科学依据。方法:基于2005—2020年《中国卫生统计年鉴》10~24岁城乡自杀死亡率数据,采用年龄—时期—队列(APC)模型和内生因子法估计自杀死亡率的年龄、时期、队列效应。结果:中国10~24岁人群自杀死亡率近年来呈上升趋势。APC模型分析结果显示,10~24岁人群自杀死亡风险随年龄增大而增大,时期效应随时间变化波动,并从2015年以来呈上升趋势,队列效应呈先下降后上升趋势。结论:中国年轻群体自杀问题近年来愈发严重,需采取更有效的干预措施,以防止年轻群体自杀死亡风险进一步增加。Objective:To explore the trends of suicide mortality rate among people aged 10-24 years in China from 2005 to 2020,and to provide scientific basis for the prevention of suicide among young people.Methods:Based on the data of rural-urban suicide mortality rate among people aged 10-24 years in China Health Statistical Yearbook from 2005 to 2012 and China Statistical Yearbook of Health and Family Planning from 2013 to 2020,the age-period-cohort(APC)model and the intrinsic estimator method were used to estimate the age,period and cohort effect of suicide mortality.Results:The suicide mortality rate among people aged 10-24 years in China had been on the rise in recent years.The results of the APC model showed that the risk of suicide mortality among people aged 10-24 years increased with age.The period effect fluctuated over time,with an increasing trend since 2015,and the cohort effect showed a decreasing trend followed by an increase.Conclusion:The problemof suicide among young people in China has become more serious in recent years.More effective interventions are needed,to prevent further increases in the risk of suicide mortality of young people.

关 键 词：年轻群体 自杀 死亡率 年龄—时期—队列模型 

分 类 号：R179[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]