基于动态模糊认知图的城市大型基础设施可持续性评价  

Evaluation of Urban Large-scale Infrastructure Sustainability Based on Dynamic Fuzzy Cognitive Map

作　　者：吕鹏洲 陈虹宇 徐文[3] 冯宗宝 覃亚伟[3,4] LV Pengzhou;CHEN Hongyu;XU Wen;FENG Zongbao;QIN Yawei(China Railway Tunnel Group Co Ltd,Wuhan 430063,China;Faculty of Construction and Environment,The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,HongKong 999077,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;Wuhan Huazhong University of Science and Technology Test Technology Co Ltd,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁隧道集团有限公司,湖北武汉430063 [2]香港理工大学建设与环境学院,中国香港999077 [3]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [4]武汉华中科大检测有限公司,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2023年第3期111-117,153,共8页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家重点研发项目(2016YFC0800208);国家自然科学基金(51378235,71571078,51308240)。

摘　　要：随着我国大型基础设施的快速发展,以及可持续发展理念的持续推进,为了进一步促进基础设施形成良性可持续循环过程,本文提出基于Hebbian学习规则的动态模糊认知图可持续评价模型,用于城市大型基础设施的可持续性研究。首先基于文献和大量工程经验建立了地铁项目可持续性评价指标体系和评价标准,然后通过问卷调查和历史数据查询分别获取定性和定量指标初始状态值,运用三角模糊数法获取反映各指标之间因果关联强度的初始关联矩阵,接着借助Hebbian规则进行推理,考虑节点指标的变化关系,使得关联矩阵在节点迭代变化过程中同时变化,实现对地铁可持续性能的动态评价。最后以武汉地铁2号线和武汉天河机场为例,运用该模型对地铁和航空可持续性能进行评价,同时对地铁和航空未来可持续性问题进行有效预测,验证了本方法在城市大型基础设施可持续评价方面的适用性。With the rapid development of large infrastructure in our country,and continue to promote the concept of sustainable development,in order to further promote the benign sustainable infrastructure circulation process.This paper proposes a sustainable evaluation model of dynamic fuzzy cognitive map based on the Hebbian learning rule,used in the study of urban sustainability of large infrastructure.First of all,based on the literature and a large number of engineering experience to build the subway project sustainability evaluation index system and evaluation standards,and then through the questionnaire survey and historical data query initial state values respectively to obtain the qualitative and quantitative indicators,using the method of triangular fuzzy number to obtain index reflecting the causal relationship between the intensity of the initial correlation matrix,then using Hebbian rule reasoning,considering the changes of node index,makes the correlation matrix in the process of iterative change node change at the same time,realizes sustainable dynamic evaluation of the performance of the subway.Finally,taking Wuhan Metro Line 2 and Wuhan Tianhe Airport as examples,this model is used to evaluate the sustainable performance of the subway and predict the future sustainability of the subway effectively,which verifies the applicability of this method in the sustainable evaluation of urban large-scale infrastructure.

关 键 词：可持续评价 动态模糊认知图 Hebbain规则 大型基础设施 

分 类 号：F294[经济管理—国民经济] TU71[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]