基于ACO-SVM模型的油浸风冷式变压器热点温度预测方法  

Hot Spot Temperature Prediction Method for Oil-natural Air-forced Transformers Based on ACO-SVM Model

作　　者：梁峰 杨鑫[1] 乐骁文 贾鹏飞[2] 金虎 刘烨 LIANG Feng;YANG Xin;LE Xiao-wen;JIA Peng-fei;JIN Hu;LIU Ye(College of Electrical and Information Engineering,Changsha University of Science and Technology,Changsha 410114,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Beijing 100192,China;Electric Power Research Institute,China Southern Power Grid,Guangzhou 510663,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学电气与信息工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [2]中国电力科学研究院,北京100192 [3]中国南方电网公司电力科学研究院,广东广州510663

出　　处：《变压器》2023年第6期6-12,共7页Transformer

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52177015)。

摘　　要：针对目前应用人工智能算法对油浸风冷式变压器进行热点温度预测时,预测模型输入特征量的选取不够精准及预测准确率不足的问题,本文作者在变压器内部温升-散热过程的分析基础上,提出以油浸风冷式变压器的箱壁温度作为预测模型输入特征量之一,建立了蚁群算法优化支持向量机(ACO-SVM)预测变压器绕组热点温度的模型。以实测数据作为样本进行模型训练,将文中模型与PSO-SVM模型和SVM模型的预测性能进行比较,文中模型的均方误差和平均相对误差相较于PSO-SVM模型降低了87.74%和40%,相较于SVM模型降低了87%和38.86%,测试结果表明该方法预测精度更高,对预测油浸风冷式变压器的热点温度具有更好的适用性。At present,when artificial intelligence algorithm is used to predict the hot spot temperature of oil-immersed air-cooled transformer,the selection of the input characteristic quantity of the prediction model is not accurate enough and the prediction accuracy is insufficient.Based on the analysis of the internal temperature rise and heat dissipation process of the transformer,the tank wall temperature of oil-immersed air-cooled transformer is taken as one of the input characteristic quantities in the prediction model,an ant colony algorithm optimized support vector machine(ACO-SVM)model for predicting transformer winding hot spot temperature is established.Taking the measured data as a sample,the prediction performance of the model in this paper is compared with the PSO-SVM model and the SVM model.Compared with the PSO-SVM model,the reductions are 87.74%and 40%,compared with the SVM model,the reductions are87%and 38.86%.Indicating that the proposed method has higher prediction accuracy and better applicability for predicting the hot spot temperature of oil-natural air-forced transformers.

关 键 词：变压器 支持向量机 热点温度 绝缘寿命 箱壁温度 

分 类 号：TM401.2[电气工程—电器]