基于灰色理论和贝叶斯网络的城市道路交通安全风险研究  

Study on Urban Road Traffic Safety Risk Based on Grey Theory and Bayesian Network

作　　者：周秋龙 张忠宇 唐莎 邱开来 刘田源 ZHOU Qiulong;ZHANG Zhongyu;TANG Sha;QIU Kailai;LIU Tianyuan(Nanjing Urban Construction Tunnel and Bridge Wisdom Management Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210012,China;Jiangsu Transportation Institute Group Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210019,China;School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 211100,China)

机构地区：[1]南京城建隧桥智慧管理有限公司,江苏南京210012 [2]苏交科集团股份有限公司,江苏南京210019 [3]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《贵州大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期99-107,共9页Journal of Guizhou University:Natural Sciences

基　　金：南京市住房和城乡建设委员会资助课题(Ks2006)。

摘　　要：为更好地对城市道路交通安全进行研究,提出了基于灰色理论和贝叶斯网络的城市道路交通安全风险分析方法。从人-车-路-环境-管理5大指标建立城市道路交通安全风险影响因素评价体系;采用灰色关联度方法判别城市道路交通安全的显著影响因素;结合贝叶斯网络评估所筛选因素对道路交通安全风险影响的概率分布,辨识道路交通安全风险主要致因与影响强度分布。选取南京市鼓楼区惠民西路周围道路2009—2011年间发生的267起交通事故验证该模型的有效性。结果表明,该方法共识别影响惠民西路交通安全显著因素11个,基于筛选出的11个因素辨识出惠民西路处于低风险的概率为31%,中风险的概率为37%,高风险的概率为31%,为城市道路交通安全风险研究提供一些参照。In order to better study the urban road traffic safety,the author proposes an urban road traffic safety risk analysis method based on grey theory and Bayesian network.The evaluation system of influencing factors of urban road traffic safety risk is established from five indexes of human-vehicle-road-environment-management.The grey relational degree method is used to identify the significant influencing factors of urban road traffic safety.The probability distribution of the influence of selected factors on road traffic safety risk is evaluated by Bayesian network,and the main cause and influence intensity distribution of road traffic safety risk are identified.A total of 267 traffic accidents occurred on roads around Huimin West Road in Gulou District of Nanjing from 2009 to 2011 are selected to verify the effectiveness of the model.The results show that the method identifies 11 significant factors that affect the traffic safety of Huimin West Road.Based on the screened 11 factors,the probability of low risk is 31%,the probability of medium risk is 37%,and the probability of high risk is 31%,which provides some references for the study of urban road traffic safety risk.

关 键 词：交通安全 道路风险因素 灰色理论 贝叶斯网络 交通工程 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]