俄罗斯对独联体国家经济增长的影响机制研究  

Research on the Mechanisms of Russia's Impact on Economic Growth of the CIS Countries

作　　者：王维然 陀才进 WANG Wei-ran;TUO Cai-jin(Business School of Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学商学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《兰州财经大学学报》2023年第3期63-78,共16页Journal of Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“共建‘一带一路’在欧亚地区可持续发展研究”(20BGJ065)。

摘　　要：准确评估俄罗斯对独联体国家的经济影响关乎“一带一路”倡议在欧亚地区的顺利推进。本文从双边贸易、投资和劳工汇款等视角出发,运用1997—2019年独联体国家的跨国面板数据,对俄罗斯在独联体国家经济增长背后所起到的影响及作用机制进行了系统性检验。研究表明:(1)俄罗斯对独联体各国的经济增长起到了重要的牵引作用,这种牵引作用主要通过双边贸易、跨国投资、劳工汇款以及俄罗斯主导的欧亚经济联盟等途径来实现;(2)时至今日,独联体各国仍旧扮演着俄罗斯原料产地的角色,并在油气和矿石开采等关系国民经济的命脉性行业上严重依赖于俄罗斯的跨国投资,这种在贸易、投资等领域对俄的不对称依赖性则是维持俄罗斯在欧亚地区经济影响力的重要原因;(3)鉴于俄罗斯在欧亚地区的经济影响力,中国在谋求推动“丝绸之路经济带”的建设过程中,须妥善处理好双方在欧亚地区的经济利益兼容问题,以共同推动“丝绸之路经济带”和欧亚经济联盟对接成功。本文为评估俄罗斯对独联体各国的经济影响提供了更直接的新证据,并为我国在欧亚地区推动“一带一路”建设提供了决策参考。Accurately assessing Russia's economic influence on the CIS countries is crucial for the smooth advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Eurasian region.From the perspective of bilat⁃eral trade,investment and labor remittances,this paper systematically examines the influence of Russia on the economic growth of the CIS countries and its mechanism by using cross-country panel data from 1997—2019.The results show that:(1)Russia plays a significant engine role in the economic growth of CIS countries,primarily achieved through bilateral trade,cross-border investment,remittances,and Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union.(2)To this day,CIS countries still serve as primary suppliers of raw materials for Russia and heavily rely on Russia's cross-border investments in vital sectors such as oil,gas,and mineral extraction.This asymmetrical dependence on Russia in trade,investment and other fields is an important reason for Russia to maintain its economic influence in Eurasia.(3)Given Rus⁃sia's economic influence in the Eurasian region,it is necessary for China to handle the compatibility of economic interests between the two sides in the process of promoting the Silk Road Economic Belt,aim⁃ing to achieve successful connection between the Belt and Road Initiative and the Eurasian Economic Union.This study provides new direct evidence for assessing Russia's economic impact on CIS countries and offers decision-making references for China's promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Eur⁃asian region.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 独联体 引擎作用 不对称依赖 

分 类 号：F151.2[经济管理—世界经济]