基于MaxEnt模型预测斑尾榛鸡在中国的潜在适生区  

Prediction of Potentially Suitable Distribution Area of Bonasa Sewerzowi in China Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：文泽宇 邓睿 杨威[1,3] 暴来安 李文杰 杨胜发 潘伟亮 WEN Zeyu;DENG Rui;YANG Wei;BAO Laian;LI Wenjie;YANG Shengfa;PAN Weiliang(Engineering Laboratory of Environmental Hydraulic Engineering of Chongqing Municipal,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;College of Architecture and Urban Planning of Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;National Engineering Research Center for Inland Waterway Regulation,Chongqing 400074,China;Henan Antai Pipeline Technology Co.,Ltd.,Puyang 457000,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学环境水利工程重庆市工程实验室,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通大学建筑与城市规划学院,重庆400074 [3]国家内河航道整治工程技术研究中心,重庆400074 [4]河南安泰管道科技有限公司,河南濮阳457000

出　　处：《三峡生态环境监测》2023年第2期67-74,共8页Ecology and Environmental Monitoring of Three Gorges

基　　金：重庆市科技局项目(cstc2017shmsA20011);住房和城乡建设部科学技术计划项目(2016-K6-025)。

摘　　要：斑尾榛鸡(Bonasa sewerzowi)是我国特有种鸟类,国家一级保护动物,研究斑尾榛鸡在国内的适生区可为其保护提供参考。从全球生物多样性信息机构(global biodiversityinformationfacilyty,GBIF)选取1980年至2020年9月人工观察记录并上传到网站的101个斑尾榛鸡出现位点,结合31个环境变量,利用最大熵模型(maximum entropy,MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(geographic informationsystem,GIS)技术,对其适宜生境进行预测。结果表明MaxEnt模型的预测精度较高(AUC平均值为0.906)。刀切法(Jackknife)结果显示,距河流最近距离、距道路最近距离、距居民点距离、最冷月最低温度、海拔是影响斑尾榛鸡生境的5个重要环境变量。该模型预测斑尾榛鸡的高适生区主要分布在甘肃西南部、青海东部以及四川北部地区;其次在西藏东部、云南北部地区有零星的高适生区。潜在的适生区破碎化比较严重,在未来修复破碎化的生境,扩大斑尾榛鸡高适生区范围,对于合理有效保护该物种及其生境有重要意义。Being a endemic birds in China,the Chinese grouse(Bonasa sewerzowi)is marked as the first class protected animal.The study on the suitable habitat of Bonasa sewerzowi can provide reference for the protection of the species.According to the human observation records uploaded to the global biodiversity information agency(GBIF)in 1980 to September 2020,101 Bonasa sewer⁃zowi sites and 31 environmental variables were used,to predict its suitable habitat with the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model and geographic information system(GIS)technology.The results show that the MaxEnt model possessed a high accuracy of prediction(average AUC is 0.906).The results of Jackknife shows that the closest distance from the river,the closest distance from the road,the distance from residents,the minimum temperature of coldest month,and the altitude are the five most important environmental variables that affect the habitat of Bonasa sewerzowi.The model predicted that Bonasa sewerzowi’s highly suitable habitats are mainly distributed in southwestern Gansu,eastern Qinghai,and northern Sichuan,followed by sporadic areas of high fitness in eastern Ti⁃bet and northern Yunnan.The potential suitable habitats are severely fragmented.In the future,it is important to repair the fragment⁃ed habitats and expand the highly suitable habitats of Bonasa sewerzowi for the rational and effective protection of this species and their habitats.

关 键 词：斑尾榛鸡 最大熵模型 适宜生境 物种保护 

分 类 号：Q958.1[生物学—动物学]