基于计算智能方法的给水排水管道寿命预测研究  

Research on Life Prediction of Water Supply and Drainage Pipelines Based on Computational Intelligence

作　　者：马智明[1,2] MA Zhi-ming(Tiandi Science&Technology Co.,Ltd.;CCTEG Coal Mining Research Institute Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]天地科技股份有限公司 [2]中煤科工开采研究院有限公司

出　　处：《化工自动化及仪表》2023年第4期557-563,共7页Control and Instruments in Chemical Industry

基　　金：天地科技开采设计事业部科技创新基金面上项目“建筑信息模型(BIM)技术在矿井、选煤厂三维协同设计中的应用研究”(KJ-2019-TDKCMS-01)。

摘　　要：为改善现有给水排水管道寿命预测能力不足的问题,提出一种基于计算智能的给水排水管道寿命预测模型。首先,分析积水排水管道管壁腐蚀和应力计算等失效因素。其次,基于概率物理模型的铸铁给水排水管道的腐蚀概率失效预测模型,实现管道使用寿命预测及分析。试验环节,以收集的铸铁给水排水管道数据为例,对所提模型进行验证,结果表明:模型分析与失效寿命概率结果显示出相似的风险率预测,验证了所提模型的有效性。For purpose of improving the life prediction of existing water supply and drainage pipelines,a computational intelligence-based life prediction model for it was proposed.Firstly,having the failure factors such as wall corrosion and stress calculation of waterlogged drainage pipeline analyzed;then,having the probabilistic physical model based to establish a corrosion probability failure prediction model for the water supply and drainage pipeline made of cast irons so as to realize both the prediction and analysis of pipeline service life.Verifying the model based on collected data of cast iron pipes shows that,both model analysis and failure life probability contributes similar risk rate prediction.The test results verify the validity of the model proposed.

关 键 词：寿命预测 给水排水管道 铸铁 概率物理模型 应力分析 

分 类 号：TP393[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]