农业化肥回弹效应演变趋势及其影响机制--以陕西省为例  

Evolution trend and mechanism of the rebound effect of agricultural chemical fertilizer:An empirical analysis of Shaanxi Province

作　　者：陈佩[1] 蔡荣[1] CHEN Pei;CAI Rong(Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食和物资学院,南京210003

出　　处：《资源科学》2023年第4期750-761,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72173060;71773044);国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY052);江苏高校“青蓝工程”资助项目(2022)。

摘　　要：【目的】在加快推进农业绿色转型发展目标背景下,厘清农业技术进步对农业化肥回弹效应的影响机制,对于节肥政策制定与绿色可持续发展意义重大。【方法】基于2000—2019年陕西省县域数据,采用半参数空间滞后模型对农业化肥回弹效应进行测算,并分析农业化肥回弹效应的演变趋势及出现“回火效应”或“过度储存效应”背后的深层次原因,在此基础上使用固定效应模型检验农业技术进步影响化肥回弹效应的作用机制。【结果】①样本地区化肥回弹效应均值为0.250,呈现“部分回弹”的特点,说明农业技术进步虽然减少了化肥使用,但其带来的化肥减量有25%被技术进步所带来的新一轮化肥消耗需求所抵消。②样本地区农业化肥回弹效应在不同年份起伏较大,部分年份具有“过度储存效应”或“回火效应”。总体而言,化肥回弹效应呈现出下降趋势。③机制分析发现,农业技术进步通过化肥使用效率提升、农地经营规模扩大、种植结构“非粮化”等机制引致农业化肥回弹效应。【结论】应强化农业发展绿色引领,改变错误施肥观念,采取多管齐下的政策组合措施降低化肥回弹效应;同时加强农业绿色技术投入,作好技术推广普及;此外,推动适度规模经营,谨防耕地“非粮化”。[Objective]Under the background of accelerating the development of green agricultural transformation,clarifying the impact and mechanism of agricultural technological progress on the“rebound effect”of chemical fertilizer is of great significance for the formulation of fertilizer saving policies and green and sustainable development.[Methods]Based on the county data of Shaanxi Province from 2000 to 2019,the semi-parameter spatial lag model was used to measure the rebound effect of agricultural chemical fertilizer,and the trend of the rebound effect and the deep-level reasons behind the occurrence of the“tempering effect”or“excessive storage effect”were analyzed.On this basis,the fixed effect model was used to examine the mechanism of agricultural technology progress affecting the rebound effect of chemical fertilizer.[Results]The results show that:(1)The mean value of the rebound effect of chemical fertilizer in the sample areas was 0.250,showing a“partial rebound”,indicating that although agricultural technological progress reduced fertilizer,25%of the fertilizer reduction was offset by a new round of fertilizer consumption demand brought about by technological progress.(2)The rebound effect of agricultural chemical fertilizer in the sample area fluctuated greatly in different years,and in some years chemical fertilizer use showed“excessive storage effect”or“backfire effect”.In general,the rebound effect of chemical fertilizer showed a downward trend.(3)The mechanism analysis showed that agricultural technology progress caused the rebound effect of agricultural chemical fertilizer through three mechanisms the improvement of fertilizer use efficiency,the expansion of farmland management scale,and the“non-grain”trend of planting structure change.[Conclusion]Greening of agricultural development should be strengthened,incorrect conception of fertilization should be changed,and multi-pronged policy measures should be taken to reduce the rebound effect of chemical fertilizer;Meanwhile,agricu

关 键 词：农业技术进步 农业化肥回弹效应 半参数空间滞后模型 化肥使用效率 农地经营规模 种植结构 陕西省 

分 类 号：S143[农业科学—肥料学]