“一带一路”贸易网络连通性演化  

Evolution of“the Belt and Road”trade network connectivity

作　　者：钮潇雨 陈伟[3,4] 俞肇元 NIU Xiaoyu;CHENWei;YU Zhaoyuan(School of Geography Science,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment,Nanjing Normal University,Ministry of Education,Nanjing 210023,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [2]南京师范大学虚拟地理环境教育部重点实验室,南京210023 [3]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [4]中国科学院大学资源环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2023年第6期1069-1081,共13页Progress in Geography

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK1007);国家自然科学基金项目(41901154,42130508,42230406)。

摘　　要：贸易畅通是“一带一路”建设的重点内容和核心环节。基于“一带一路”贸易网络数据库,论文综合集成组团识别、核心—边缘轮廓、视差滤波等网络中尺度分析方法,构建探索贸易网络连通性的分析框架,从节点和连边双维度揭示“一带一路”贸易网络的时空格局、拓扑关系以及连通性演化,以期能为新时期“一带一路”框架下经贸合作高质量发展提供科学参考。研究发现:①“一带一路”贸易网络联系持续增加、网络密度不断提升、贸易规模分布空间异质性突出,逐步形成了联系日益紧密、层级结构明显、空间上非均衡分布的贸易网络格局;②“一带一路”贸易网络形成了5个贸易组团,组团结构存在地理邻近效应,地理距离在全球及区域尺度的国际贸易分工体系演化中依然扮演着重要角色;③“一带一路”贸易网络的核心—边缘结构正在经历结构性调整,核心结构和边缘结构呈现出明显分化,极化效应凸显;④“一带一路”贸易骨干结构不断拓展和丰富,呈现出向核心国家集聚的变化趋势,形成了以中国为绝对核心,印度、俄罗斯和土耳其为次核心的骨干网络格局。研究结果对于理解“一带一路”贸易网络结构、优化贸易发展格局以及提升贸易网络韧性具有重要启示意义。Trade connectivity is a crucial component in the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).Based on the BRI trade network database,this study integrated three mesoscale analysis methods,including community detection,core-periphery profile,and disparity filter,to build an analytical framework for exploring trade network connectivity and further investigated the spatiotemporal patterns,topological relationship,and structural evolution of"the Belt and Road"trade network from 2000 to 2020 in two dimensions,including nodes and edges.This study aimed to provide scientific references for a comprehensive and in-depth understanding of"the Belt and Road"trade network connectivity.The results show that:1)The BRI trade network connections and density continuously increased,and the size distribution in trade volumes showed spatial heterogeneity,gradually forming patterns with an apparent hierarchical structure,unbalanced spatial distribution,and increasingly close trade ties.2)The BRI trade network included five trade blocs with significant geographical proximity,and geographical distance still played an essential role in the evolution of the international trade division of labor system at the global and regional scales.3)The core-periphery structures of the BRI trade network are undergoing structural adjustments,with the core and peripheral structures showing apparent differentiation and the core-peripheral polarization effect emerging.4)The backbone structures of the BRI trade network have been continuously expanded and enriched,showing a trend of convergence to the core countries,forming backbone network patterns with China as the absolute core,radiating outward and linking the whole region while India,Russia,and Turkey have also formed their backbone networks in local regions.From the perspective of network science,examining trade network connectivity is crucial for understanding the trade network structure,optimizing the trade development pattern,and enhancing the trade network resilience in"the Belt and Road"r

关 键 词：贸易网络 组团结构 核心—边缘结构 骨干结构 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F746