台风事件下的雨潮复合灾害风险研究  

Compound flood risk of rainfall and storm surges during typhoon events

作　　者：乔煜 季小梅[1,2] 张蔚[1,2] QIAO Yu;JI Xiaomei;ZHANG Wei(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Coastal Ocean Resources Development and Environmental Security,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;College of Harbor,Coastal and Offshore Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学江苏省海岸海洋资源开发与环境安全重点实验室,南京210024 [2]河海大学港口海岸与近海工程学院,南京210024

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2023年第6期1153-1161,共9页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B2102022026)。

摘　　要：在全球气候变化背景下,沿海地区复合洪涝灾害频发,研究相关灾害风险具有重要意义。论文以位于粤港澳大湾区核心区的香港(地区)为例,选取自1962—2021年影响大湾区的223场台风事件作为统计样本,分析在台风影响下,香港(地区)的雨潮复合灾害风险。采用Mann-Kendall法分析台风事件的特征变化,发现大湾区近60年来的台风总体呈现“低概率、高致灾”特征。通过多种统计检验方法确定了台风事件下最大风暴增水与累积降雨量的最优边缘分布函数,并采用Frank型Copula函数拟合雨潮复合灾害的联合分布。通过对单一致灾因子以及复合灾害的风险评估和设计值推求,发现“或”重现期的风险率偏高,“且”重现期的风险率偏低,最终认为大湾区在进行海岸工程设计时,选用二次重现期下的最大风暴增水与累积降雨量设计值为最优。研究结果在一定程度上揭示了大湾区的复合灾害风险特性,可为相关的灾害情境构建提供参考。In the context of global climate change,compound flood disasters occur frequently in coastal areas,and thus it is of great significance to examine the related disaster risks.In this study,223 typhoon events that affected Hong Kong region from 1962 to 2021 were selected as statistical samples to analyze the compound disaster risk of rainfall and storm surges in Hong Kong region under the influence of typhoons.The Mann-Kendall method was used to analyze the characteristics of typhoon events,and we found that the typhoons in Hong Kong region during the past 60 years show the characteristics of low probability and high impact.The optimal marginal distribution function of the maximum storm water increase and cumulative rainfall under typhoon events was determined by a variety of statistical testing methods,and the Frank Copula function was used to fit the joint probability distribution of rainfall-storm surge compound disasters.Based on the risk assessment and design value calculation of single factors and compound disasters,the risk rate of the"or"return period is high,and the risk rate of the"and"return period is low.Finally,we concluded that the optimal design values of maximum storm surge and cumulative rainfall in the secondary return period should be selected for the design of coastal engineering projects in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay area.This study showed the compound disaster risk characteristics of the Greater Bay area and provides a reference for the construction of relevant disaster scenarios.

关 键 词：台风事件 雨潮复合灾害 COPULA函数 联合分布 重现期 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]