珠江三角洲风暴潮与径流作用下的复合洪水特征  

Compound flood from storm surge and runoff in the Pearl River Delta

作　　者：郭婷 张蔚[1,2] 季小梅[1] 徐龑文 罗小雅 GUO Ting;ZHANGWei;JI Xiaomei;XU Yanwen;LUO Xiaoya(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Coast Ocean Resources Development and Environment Security,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;Engineering Research Center of Dredging Technology of the Ministry of Education,Hohai University,Nanjing 210024,China;Shanghai Engineering Research Center of Coastal Zones,Shanghai 200061,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学江苏省海岸海洋资源开发与环境安全重点实验室,南京210024 [2]河海大学疏浚技术教育部工程研究中心,南京210024 [3]上海滩涂海岸工程技术研究中心,上海200061

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2023年第6期1162-1171,共10页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B2102022026)。

摘　　要：在河道壅水和风暴潮致灾程度增加等变化环境下,三角洲地区极易发生复合洪水。分析风暴潮与径流共同作用下复合洪水的发生概率,明确复合洪水的主导因子,对完善洪水标准、防范复合洪涝灾害具有重要意义。论文选用珠江三角洲西江、北江河网区内1961—2017年的径流与风暴增水数据,借助Spearman相关系数、Mann-Kendall趋势检验与Copula函数,探究致灾因子相关性规律并量化复合洪水重现期。结果表明:北江测站的复合洪水由径流极值主导,但向风暴增水极值主导转变的趋势显著;西江测站则由风暴增水极值主导,其中黄金站与西炮台站向径流极值主导转变的趋势显著,其余测站转变趋势与北江测站相同。测站间相关系数的洪枯季差异程度不同,径流极值主导的序列差异大,且在洪季占优,最大差值达0.35。双变量洪水联合重现期相比单变量重现期减小50%左右,在单变量10年一遇的情况下,双变量洪水发生概率最高的测站为径流极值主导的万顷沙西站(5.71年)和风暴增水极值主导的横门站(5.54年),且径流极值主导序列中的显著相关测站对风暴增水变化更为敏感。研究成果可为珠江三角洲河网防洪减灾提供侧重于不同主导致灾因子(如风暴增水、径流等)的防护方案。Due to the changing environment such as damming and storm surges,delta regions are extremely prone to compound flooding.Analyzing the occurrence probability of compound floods caused by storm surges and runoff,and clarifying the dominant factors of compound floods are of great significance for improving flood protection standards and preventing compound flood disasters.With the help of the Spearman correlation coefficient,Mann-Kendall trend test,and Copula function,the runoff and storm surge data of the river network in the Pearl River Delta(PRD)from 1961 to 2017 were selected to explore the correlation of factors and quantify the return period of compound floods.The results show that the compound floods at the North River stations were dominated by the extreme value of runoff,but showed a significant trend towards dominated by the extreme value of storm surges;while the compound floods at the West River stations were dominated by the extreme value of storm surges.Compound floods at the Huangjing and Xipaotai stations showed a significant trend towards dominated by the extreme value of runoff,and the transformation trends of other stations were the same as that of the North River stations.The degree of difference of the correlation coefficients of stations in the flood and dry seasons varied,and the sequence dominated by runoff extreme values showed a larger difference,especially in the flood season,with the maximum difference of 0.35.The combined return period of compound floods was about 50%shorter than that of the univariate ones.In the case of the univariate once-in-a-decade situation,the stations with the highest probability of occurrence of the bivariate flood are:Wanqingshaxi Station dominated by runoff extremes(5.71 years)and Hengmen Station(5.54 years)dominated by storm surge extremes,and significantly correlated stations in the runoff extremes dominant sequence are more sensitive to storm surge changes.The research results can provide protection schemes focusing on different dominant disaster-causing fa

关 键 词：复合洪水 风暴增水 COPULA函数 径流 珠江三角洲 

分 类 号：P333.2[天文地球—水文科学] P731.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]