全球化何以影响恐怖主义——基于全球恐怖主义指数的实证分析  

How Does Globalization Affect Terrorism?Empirical Analysis Based on Global Terrorism Index

作　　者：彭睿 彭宗超[1,2] Peng Rui;Peng Zongchao(Tsinghua University School of Public Policy;Tsinghua University Center for Crisis Management Research and Center for Social Risk Assessment in China,the School Council,Tsinghua University,School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学公共管理学院 [2]清华大学应急管理研究基地、中国社会风险评估研究中心,北京100084

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2023年第6期114-146,171,共34页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“重大突发事件协同研判与决策机制研究”(项目批准号:72134003)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：在全球化及逆全球化并存的时代,全球治理面临恐怖主义的严峻挑战,全球治理研究有必要关注恐怖主义与全球化之间的关联。作者基于2002—2019年全球恐怖主义指数的面板数据,采用豪斯曼—泰勒估计模型,分析了全球化背景下的恐怖主义影响因素与内在机制。研究结果显示,全球化对恐怖主义具有复杂性影响。其中,经济全球化的发展与互联网的普及对恐怖主义的发生具有显著的促进作用,政治全球化的提升会显著改善国家面临的恐怖主义状况,政府质量的提升可以帮助国家有效抵御恐怖主义的威胁,难民人数增加也与恐怖主义具有一定相关性。全球化是当下恐怖主义缘何发生以及何以消解的重要时代因素。只有将宏观的动态时代特征与本国结构性特质相结合,方能对防范与治理复杂变化的全球恐怖主义风险提供更为全面客观的认识。In the era of globalization and anti-globalization,global governance faces the severe challenge of terrorism.Therefore,it is necessary to consider the linkages between terrorism and globalization.Based on the Global Terrorism Index(GTI)panel data from 2002 to 2019,this study adopts the Hausman-Taylor estimation model to explore the influencing factors and internal mechanisms of terrorism in globalization.The results show that globalization has a complex impact on terrorism,and economic globalization and widespread use of the Internet have a significant role in promoting the occurrence of terrorism.Political globalization will significantly improve the country's terrorism situation.The improvement of the quality of government can effectively help the country resist the threat of terrorism.There is also a correlation between the increase in refugee numbers and terrorism.Based on these results,it can be confirmed that globalization is an essential factor in determining the origin and resolution of terrorism.Only by combining the dynamics of the era with the structural characteristics of the country can we provide a more comprehensive and objective understanding of terrorism,preventing and managing the complex change of global terrorism risk.

关 键 词：恐怖主义 全球化 互联网 政府质量 全球治理 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]