浅析“9·11”事件以来巴基斯坦反恐政策中武力打击与和谈的交替——新古典现实主义视角  

Alternation of Military Strikes and Peace Talks:A Neoclassical Realist Perspective on Pakistan's Counter-terrorism Policy since the September 11 Attacks

作　　者：宋志辉 李炜泽[2] Song Zhihui;Li Weize

机构地区：[1]四川大学国际关系学院 [2]四川大学南亚研究所 [3]四川大学巴基斯坦研究中心

出　　处：《南亚研究》2023年第2期39-63,154,155,共27页South Asian Studies

摘　　要：“9·11”事件以来,巴基斯坦历届政府的反恐政策在武力使用问题上呈现打击与和谈交替的现象。新古典现实主义理论认为国家在接收到国际体系信号的刺激后经过国内中介变量的作用最终生成对外政策。影响巴基斯坦反恐政策中武力使用的外部自变量因素主要是美国的压力和恐情的变化。巴基斯坦军政双方各自的政策偏好和军政双方政治地位的高低则是中介变量。双方的政策偏好主要取决于对于国家首要安全威胁的认知,但也受自身的特殊利益及领导人认知的影响。随着时间的推移,美国因素对巴基斯坦反恐政策的影响逐渐减弱,恐情本身则成为最主要的外部影响因素。Since the September 1l attacks,successive governments in Pakistan have alternated military strikes and engaging in peace talks to counter terrorism.According to the theories of neoclassical realism,a state's ultimate foreign policy is determined by the interaction between stimuli received from the international system and intermediary moderating variables from the domestic politics.With respect to Pakistan's counterterrorism policy,the primary external variables influencing whether it uses force include pressure from the United States and changes in situation of terrorist activity.Intermediary moderatingg variables include the policy preferences of both the military and the government in Pakistan,as well as their relative political positions.The policy preferences of the Pakistani government and military are determined foremost by perceptions of national security threats,but also by the unique interests and perceptions of individual leaders.Over time,the influence of the United States over Pakistan's counter-terrorism policy has diminished,and the situation of terrorist activity itself has emerged as the most significant external factor shaping the policy.

关 键 词：巴基斯坦 反恐政策 恐怖主义 新古典现实主义 塔利班 

分 类 号：D735.3[政治法律—政治学]