印度大国结盟战略:信誉缺失、三重背离及成因  

India's Great Power Alignment Strategy:Reputation Deficit,Triple Deviation and Causes

作　　者：李亮[1,2] Li Liang

机构地区：[1]兰州大学阿富汗研究中心所 [2]兰州大学中亚研究所、兰州大学政治与国际关系学院

出　　处：《南亚研究》2023年第2期109-132,157,共25页South Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“多重危机和博弈加剧背景下的阿富汗安全形势及对策研究”(项目批准号:21AGJ014)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：印度外交中历来存在一系列矛盾现象,冷战期间奉行不结盟战略却与苏联事实结盟,近年来与美国深度战略捆绑又始终不冠结盟之名,常年在美苏(俄)之间双面下注、在理想与现实之间来回切换。2022年俄乌冲突中,印度与美国关系紧密却坚持所谓“中立”是这些现象的最新体现。本文通过对这些现象进行历史性回顾发现,印度大国结盟战略一直存在信誉缺失这一核心特征,并表现为三重背离。首先是言行不一,背离了国家战略信誉;其次是双面下注,背离结盟必需的排他性;最后是内外有别,背离了引领不结盟运动的国际道义。这些失信行为并非印度刻意失信,而是印度大国雄心和有限国力之间的落差、战略自主和现实主义的拉扯以及印美在相互需要和互不信任之间的纠结这三种因素的必然结果。探寻印度大国结盟外交的特征、表现及成因,有助于理解印度在俄乌战争中的立场,深化对印度外交的认知,也能为研判印美关系走向提供新思路。India's foreign policy has long been characterized by contradictions.During the Cold War,India pursued a strategy of nonalignment,but formed an de facto alliance with the Soviet Union.In recent years,India has developed deep strategic ties with the United States,but without labeling the relationship as an alliance.It has consistently hedged bets between the U.S.and the Soviet Union(Russia),oscillating between ideals and realities.The latest iteration of these contradictionscame following the outbreak of conflict between the Ukraine and Russia in 2022,after which India maintained close ties with the United States,while continuing to insist on"neutrality".This article conducts a careful review of these historical trends and finds that India's strategy of aligning with great powers has consistently lacked credibility,and might be characterized as exhibiting what is referred to as"triple deviation".First is the discrepancy between words and actions,which goes against the country's national strategic credibility;second is the tendency to engage in double-sided hedging,which deviates from the exclusivity normallyyexpected of alliances;finally is the discrepancyybetween internal and external behaviors,which deviates from the international morality that guides the non-aligned movement.The lack of credibility in India's behavior is not deliberate,but more a reflection of the gap between India's ambitions and its national power,the tension between strategic autonomy and realism,and the intertwinement of mutual needs and lingering distrust between the U.S.and India.Exploring the characteristics,manifestations and causes of India's great power alignment diplomacy is helpful for understanding India's position vis-d-vis the Russia-Ukraine conflict,for deepening understanding of India's diplomacy,and for assessing the trajectory of U.S.-India relations.

关 键 词：俄乌冲突 印太战略 印美同盟 印俄关系 多向结盟 

分 类 号：D835.1[政治法律—政治学]