出口退税政策不确定性:测度及其对中国出口增长的影响  

Export VAT Rebate Policy Uncertainty:Measurement and Impact on China's Export Growth

作　　者：张彦哲 许和连[2] 邵小快 Zhang Yanzhe;Xu Helian;Shao Xiaokuai

机构地区：[1]海南大学经济学院 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院 [3]北京外国语大学国际商学院,北京市海淀区100089

出　　处：《世界经济》2023年第6期31-58,共28页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金青年项目(723QN218);国家自然科学基金青年项目(72103024);国家社会科学基金项目(22VRC172)。

摘　　要：本文基于2004-2015年中国出口退税率文库数据,使用出口退税率非预期波动测度中国出口退税政策不确定性,发现该指标在不同产品、时间段以及产业间呈明显差异;随后,结合同期海关数据库数据,从理论和经验两方面研究出口退税政策不确定性对中国出口增长的影响。研究结果显示:不确定性降低了出口企业的预期利润及其最优产量,显著降低了适用出口退税办法的一般贸易出口增长率,但对加工贸易没有影响。将出口总额分解后发现,一般贸易出口关系数量和平均销量增长率随不确定性提高而下降,平均价格增长率则略微提升,且这些影响仅体现在新进入的出口关系上。本文研究结果表明,当出口退税政策不确定性较高时,一般贸易企业会更谨慎地选择是否进入出口市场并倾向于采取“少量高价”的竞争策略。Based on library data of export VAT rebate rates and customs data from 2004 to 2015,this paper uses the unexpected fluctuation of export VAT rebate rates to quantify the uncertainty of China's export VAT rebate policy.The paper presents its stylised facts and investigates its influence on China's export growth from a theoretical-empirical perspective.Based on the study,several results are obtained,as follows.(1)Export VAT rebate policy uncertainty varies substantially across products,time periods and industries.(2)This policy uncertainty reduces the expected profit and optimal output of exporting firms and has an adverse effect on the ordinary trade export growth rates applicable to export VAT rebate methods,while it has no effect on those of processing trade.(3)When decomposing the total value of ordinary exports,it is found that the growth rate of the number of export relations and the average volume of sales decreases,while the average price growth rate increases slightly under the export VAT rebate policy uncertainty.(4)These effects are only manifested in the newly incoming export relations.Overall,the findings suggest that when general trading firms face a greater export VAT rebate policy uncertainty,they become more cautious when entering the export market and are more likely to adopt a low-quantity high-price strategy to ensure profitability.

关 键 词：出口退税 政策不确定性 出口增长 一般贸易 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F812.42[经济管理—产业经济] F752.5