上海国际贸易与城市经济发展互动关系研究  

Research on the Interactive Relationship between Shanghai International Trade and Urban Economic Development

作　　者：王静静 温艳萍[1] WANG Jingjing;WEN Yanping(School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《海洋经济》2023年第3期8-16,共9页Marine Economy

摘　　要：上海国际贸易与城市经济发展互动关系研究对于推动上海市经济发展具有重大意义。选取上海市进出口总额代表上海国际贸易,以上海市生产总值、上海市人均生产总值代表上海市经济发展,由上海统计年鉴整理出1990-2019年上海市进出口总额、上海市生产总值、上海市人均生产总值的年度数据,据此建立多变量VAR模型,通过Johansen协整分析、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应与方差分解等计量方法,实证分析上海国际贸易与城市经济发展之间的互动关系。结果表明两者之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系,上海市国际贸易对城市经济发展有正向激励作用,而城市经济对上海国际贸易的引导关系则不显著。最后,提出推动贸易开放度,构建全球贸易枢纽,加大上海市人才培养力度等建议。The research on the interactive relationship between Shanghai's international trade and urban economic development is of great significance to promoting Shanghai's economic development.This article selects Shanghai's total import and export volume to represent Shanghai's international trade,Shanghai GDP and Shanghai's per capita GDP as representing Shanghai's economic development.The Shanghai Statistical Yearbook has compiled Shanghai's total volume of imports and exports from 1990 to 2019,produced by Shanghai Based on the annual data of Shanghai's per capita GDP,a multivariate VAR model was established.Through Johansen cointegration analysis,Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition and other measurement methods,empirical analysis of Shanghai's international trade and urban economic development The interactive relationship between.The results show a long-term and stable co-integration relationship between the two.Shanghai's international trade has a positive incentive for urban economic development,while the urban economy's guiding relationship to Shanghai's international trade is not significant.Based on this,suggestions were made to promote trade openness,build a global trade hub,and increase the intensity of talent training in Shanghai.

关 键 词：上海市进出口总额 上海市生产总值 上海市人均生产总值 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济] P7[天文地球—海洋科学]