农村居民消费潜力测度及释放机理研究——从数字金融视角的实证  

Research on the Measurement and Release Mechanism of Rural Residents'Consumption Potential:An Empirical Study from the Perspective of Digital Finance

作　　者：薛永刚 XUE Yong-gang(School of Pharmaceutical Business,Guangdong Pharmaceutical University,Zhongshan Guangdong 528453,China;NMPA Key Laboratory for Technology Research and Evaluation of Pharmacovigilance,Zhongshan Guangdong 528400,China)

机构地区：[1]广东药科大学医药商学院,广东中山528453 [2]国家药品监督管理局药物警戒技术研究与评价重点实验室,广东中山528400

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2023年第7期73-78,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：全国教育科学规划2019年度教育部重点课题(DFA190319)。

摘　　要：基于空间经济计量框架建立农村居民消费潜力测度评价体系,并分析消费潜力时空演变特征,同时基于空间误差分量模型分析数字金融释放农村居民消费潜力的影响机制。研究发现:农村居民消费潜力具有逐年增大趋势,空间上呈现三级阶梯分布特征;数字金融可以有效释放农村居民消费潜力,覆盖广度影响最大;人口老龄化对释放农村居民消费潜力具有推动作用;数字金融对农村居民消费潜力的影响具有区域异质性。通过上述分析提出,基于区域特征有区别地发展农村数字金融服务;增强农村数字金融服务空间辐射范围和正向空间溢出效应;大力发展农村老龄人口相关产业,进而释放农村居民消费潜力。The measurement and evaluation system of rural residents'consumption potential is established based on the spatial econometric framework,and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of consumption potential are analyzed.This paper empirically analyses the mechanism of digital finance releasing the rural residents'consumption potential based on the spatial error component model.The results show that:The consumption potential of rural residents has an increasing trend year by year and shows a three-level ladder distribution;Digital finance can release the rural residents'consumption potential,and coverage breadth has the greatest impact;The aging of population can promote the release of the rural residents'consumption potential;The impact of digital finance on rural residents'consumption potential has regional heterogeneity.Main suggestions are as following:Rural digital financial services should be developed differently based on regional characteristics;Strengthen the spatial radiation scope and positive spatial spillover effect of rural digital financial services;Industries related to the aging population should be developed in rural areas so as to release the rural residents'consumption potential.

关 键 词：农村居民 消费潜力 数字金融 释放机理 

分 类 号：F323.8[经济管理—产业经济]