基于Morris筛选法的河水污染物混合长度相关参数敏感性分析  

Sensitivity analysis of parameters related to river mixing length based on Morris method

作　　者：陈月芳 刘倩 张宇琪 何梦雪 陈锦秀 李彤 陈辉伦 CHEN Yuefang;LIU Qian;ZHANG Yuqi;HE Mengxue;CHEN Jinxiu;LI Tong;CHEN Huilun(School of Energy and Environmental Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083;Beijing Key Laboratory of Resource-Oriented Treatment of Industrial Pollutant,Beijing 100083)

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学能源与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]北京市工业典型污染物资源化处理重点实验室,北京100083

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2023年第7期903-909,共7页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(No.2017ZX07301005-003)。

摘　　要：运用局部敏感性分析以及全局敏感性分析,分析了武南河二维水质预测MIKE 21模型的污染物排放浓度、降解系数、河流本底浓度以及河流流量等输入参数对混合长度预测结果的影响,并得到了不同参数的敏感性等级。采用扰动分析法进行局部敏感性分析后,用Morris筛选法对于局部敏感性分析中敏感性较小的参数数值进行不同组合后进行全局敏感性分析。全局敏感性分析结果表明,组合后各参数均为灵敏参数,且降解系数、污染物排放浓度以及河流流量在各个组合中表现出的敏感性均明显大于其参数相应变化率下的局部敏感性。通过对参数敏感性的探究,判断污染物混合区域的变化趋势,可为当地环境管理部门治理水环境提供理论支撑与指导。Local sensitivity analysis and global sensitivity analysis were used to study the influence of input parameters such as pollutant discharge and background concentrations,degradation coefficient and river flow of MIKE 21 model for two-dimensional water quality prediction in Wunan River on the prediction result of the mixing length.The sensitivity grades of different parameters were obtained.After the perturbation analysis method was used for local sensitivity analysis,Morris method was used to conduct different combinations of parameter values with less sensitivity in local sensitivity analysis for global sensitivity analysis.The results showed that after the combination,all parameters were sensitive,and the sensitivity of degradation coefficient,pollutant discharge concentration and river flow in each combination was obviously greater than the local sensitivity under the corresponding change rate of its parameter.By exploring the sensitivity of parameters,it could determine the trend of changes in pollutant mixing areas,and provide theoretical support and guidance for local environmental management departments to manage the water environment.

关 键 词：水质模型 Morris筛选法 敏感性分析 混合长度 

分 类 号：X522[环境科学与工程—环境工程]