基于案例数据的基坑施工连续破坏风险评估方法研究  

Research on Risk Assessment Method of Continuous Destruction of Excavation Construction Based on Case Statistics

作　　者：刘国彬[1] 周志斌 郭健 黄沛[2] LIU Guobin;ZHOU Zhibin;GUO Jian;HUANG Pei(Tongji University,Shanghai200092,China;Chang’an University,Xi’an,Shaanxi 710064,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学,上海200092 [2]长安大学,陕西西安710064

出　　处：《施工技术（中英文）》2023年第11期44-50,60,共8页Construction Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51608042);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(300102281203)。

摘　　要：基坑施工连续破坏往往由很小的风险源发展为对基坑自身及周围环境产生巨大影响,研究其风险评估方法对保障工程安全具有重要意义。通过整理事故案例,进行数据挖掘,推进工程风险评估的数字化和智能化。运用二阶灾害链理论建立基坑施工连续破坏事故数据库,得到14项初始风险因素、4种原生灾害、13种次生灾害,绘制出基坑施工连续破坏灾害链网,并将破坏类型分为4大类。提出基于案例数据的基坑施工连续破坏风险评估方法,并将本数据库统计结果用于风险定量计算,使用频数比较法优化层次分析法计算三级评估指标权重,采用频次加权法得到二级评估指标的平均风险损失值。从初始风险权重和原生灾害风险损失方面进行风险讨论,得到本数据库中各类连续破坏的首要损失风险因素,并提出避免主要风险源的针对性措施。The continuous destruction of the excavation construction often develops from a small risk source to a huge impact on excavation itself and the surrounding environment.Studying its risk assessment method is significant to ensure engineering safety.The digitization and intelligence of engineering risk assessment can be promoted by sorting and data mining of existing accident cases.This paper applies the second-order disaster chain theory to establish a database of continuous destruction accidents,and obtains 14 initial risk factors,4 primary disasters and 13 secondary disasters by statistics,draws a disaster chain network of continuous destruction,and divides the types of destruction into four major categories.A risk assessment method for continuous destruction of excavations based on case data is proposed,using the statistical results of this database for risk quantitative calculation,improve the analytic hierarchy process by frequency comparison method to calculate the weight of each three-level evaluation index,and use frequency weighting method to get the average risk loss value of the second-level evaluation index.Finally,the risk discussion is conducted from two aspects,that is the initial risk weight and the original disaster risk loss,then the first loss risk factors for all types of continuous destruction are obtained,and targeted measures to avoid major risk sources are proposed.

关 键 词：基坑 数据统计 灾害链 风险评估 层次分析法 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学] TU743.2