中亚地区天然气市场新形势及能源合作对策建议  

New situations of natural-gas markets in Central Asia and suggestions on energy's cooperation strategies

作　　者：曾行 闫建文[1] 张艳 张翼飞 付晶[1] ZENG Xing;YAN Jianwen;ZHANG Yan;ZHANG Yifei;FU Jing(PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development,Beijing 100083,China;Land Ocean(Xi'an)Energy Services Company Limited,Xi'an,Shaanxi 710000,China;China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Company Ltd.,Beijing 100034,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083 [2]西安恒泰艾普能源发展有限公司,陕西西安710000 [3]中国石油国际勘探开发有限公司,北京100034

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2023年第3期10-16,共7页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

基　　金：中国石油重点油气项目课题“中亚裂缝孔隙型碳酸盐岩油藏稳油控水关键技术研究与应用”(编号:2022DJ3210)。

摘　　要：中亚地区油气资源丰富,是中国重要的天然气进口来源。近年来中亚各国天然气市场呈现新形势,缩减天然气出口量以支撑当地天然气需求和促进碳中和远景目标,预判未来中国—中亚天然气管道气源不足的问题将会凸显。而随着中国能源转型和“双碳”目标的稳步推进,天然气需求增长强劲,需要更多的海外气源支撑。为了维持中国能源进口多元化战略格局,满足中国强劲增长的天然气需求,通过广泛调研和深入分析,提出了中亚地区“一带一路”能源合作建议。研究结果表明:(1)中亚地区风、光、水力等可再生能源基础优越,且具有相关产业有利的国家政策,推动与中亚国家可再生能源合作,可实现抢占中亚国家可再生能源市场的先机,促进中亚国家可再生能源产业发展,同时在一定程度上抑制本国对天然气的需求;(2)哈萨克斯坦煤层气资源基础雄厚,潜力巨大,通过两国合作抢占相关产业发展先机,既能夯实哈萨克斯坦天然气基础,又符合哈萨克斯坦能源转型需求,对于稳固中国天然气进口海外气源,维持能源进口多元化格局意义重大。With abundant oil and gas resources,Central Asia has long been a prominent source for China to import natu-ral gas.In recent years,some new situations on natural-gas markets,however,have presented in Central Asian countries.For example,these countries trim their natural-gas export to meet local demand and promote the long-term goal of carbon neutrality.Accordingly,it is predicted that the problem on insufficient gas sources will highlight in China-Central Asia nat-ural-gas pipelines in the future.With the energy transformation and steady advancement of the"dual-carbon"goal in Chi-na,natural-gas demand presents a strong growth,which needs more much gas source support from overseas.In order to maintain China's strategic pattern of energy import diversification and satisfy the strongly growing demand,some sugges-tions on the"Belt and Road Initiative"energy cooperation with Central Asia have been made on the basis of extensive in-vestigation and in-depth analysis.Results show that(i)Central Asia boasts not only superior base of renewable energy such as wind,solar and hydropower,but favorable national policies for related industries.So,promoting the cooperation with Central Asian countries in this field can seize opportunities of renewable energy markets in these countries and push their renewable energy industrial development,while restraining the local natural-gas demand to a certain extent;and(ii)Kazakhstan enjoys strong base and great potential in coalbed methane resources.Grasping chances to develop related in-dustries through the cooperation with this country can strengthen its natural-gas base and meet its need in energy transfor-mation,which is of great significance to firm overseas gas sources for China to import natural gas and maintain the pattern of diversified energy imports.

关 键 词：中亚地区 “一带一路”能源合作 中亚合作 天然气 能源安全 可再生能源 煤层气 

分 类 号：F416.2[经济管理—产业经济]