基于修正权重故障树模型的终端状态综合自评价方法研究  

A State Comprehensive Self-evaluation Method for Distribution Terminal Based on Modified Weight Fault Tree Model

作　　者：袁启洪 何连杰 张林利 周勐 宋祺鹏 张雪岑 YUAN Qihong;HE Lianjie;ZHANG Linli;ZHOU Meng;SONG Qipeng;ZHANG Xuecen(State Grid Shanghai Energy Internet Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Pudong New Area,Shanghai 201213,China;Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company,Jinan 250002,Shandong Province,China;Jiangsu Nan Dian Intelligent Energy Service Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210001,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]国网上海能源互联网研究院有限公司,上海市浦东新区201213 [2]国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院,山东省济南市250002 [3]江苏南电智慧能源服务有限公司,江苏省南京市210001

出　　处：《电力信息与通信技术》2023年第7期75-81,共7页Electric Power Information and Communication Technology

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部科技项目资助“一二次融合智能配电开关数字化提升关键技术研究与开发”(5400-202099524A-0-0-00)。

摘　　要：随着能源互联网的持续演进,配电终端转型升级不断加速,设备故障频发且缺少有效的预判和应对措施,文章以未来大规模应用的集中式站所终端为例,结合近年配电终端实际运维数据和专家经验,分析了终端各个模块的时变特性,且可根据实际运维需要更换模块并同步结果;以置信度为加权指标求取模块–故障类型的关联关系,最终形成修正权重的终端故障树模型。算例表明,构建的模型算法融合了主观经验与客观数据,能够在长时间尺度上反映配电终端整体的衰减特性,因此终端状态的自评价结果更具可信度。With the continuous evolution of the energy Internet,the transformation and upgrading of distribution terminals is developing rapidly,equipment failures occur frequently and effective pre-judgment and response measures are lacking.This paper takes the centralized distribution terminal unit for future large-scale applications as an example and considers the actual operation and maintenance data and expert experience of distribution terminals in recent years,analyzes the time-varying characteristics of each module of terminal.And the module can be replaced and the result can be synchronized according to actual operation and maintenance requirements.Confidence degree is taken as weighting index to obtain the module-fault type correlation,and the terminal fault tree model with modified weight is formed.The actual example shows that the proposed algorithm combines subjective experience and objective data,and can reflect the overall attenuation character-istics of distribution terminals in a long time scale.Therefore,the self-evaluation results of terminal state are more reliable.

关 键 词：关联规则 配电终端 故障树分析 

分 类 号：TM76[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]