市场预期机制下市场信心的形成与管理  

Formation and Management of Market Confidence under the Mechanism of Market Expectation

作　　者：赵儒煜 ZHAO Ru-yu(Regional Development and Common Prosperity Research Institute,Ningbo University of Technology,Ningbo,315000;Northeast Asian Studies College,Jilin University,Changchun,130012)

机构地区：[1]宁波工程学院区域发展与共同富裕研究院 [2]吉林大学东北亚学院

出　　处：《云南社会科学》2023年第4期14-22,共9页Social Sciences in Yunnan

摘　　要：随着经济人不完全理性得到主流经济学的认同,基于心理预期视角的经济理论和政策研究正在逐步推进着经济学革命和市场管理方式的变革。“改善社会心理预期、提振发展信心”正是市场管理思想从结果管理向成因管理进步的体现。其中,心理预期受到关注,其原因在于价格并非真正的“看不见的手”,预期机制则可以在现实的不完全市场前提下对市场现象作出全面解释,并揭示市场动力、市场资源配置、市场必然失衡、市场管理必然存在等市场基本规律的内在机理。基于这一基本认识,市场信心作为经济人在不完全理性下对市场总体发展倾向的主观判断,其形成机制是需求预期作用于供给预期并通过乘数效果影响整个经济增长态势进而影响人们对市场活力的综合判断。为此,在预期管理上,对市场信心应以辩证认识为指导,建立科学的预期管理体系。With the prevailing identification of bounded rational people premise in mainstream economics,economic and political researches based on expectations are gradually reforming economics and market management.The statement“improve social expectations and boost developing confidence”exactly shows the transformation from result management to origin management in the field of market managing theories.Expectation is especially concerned because the real“invisible hand”is not the price mechanism,but the expectation mechanism,under which market phenomena are fully explained with the premise of imperfect market and some inner patterns such as market motivation,market resource allocation,inevitable market disequilibrium and necessary market management are comprehensively displayed.Based on these perceptions,market confidence is a subjective judgement of bounded rational people on market developing trends,which is formed when demand expectations first act on supply expectations,then influence economic growth through multiplier effect,lastly affect people’s judgments on market vitality.Therefore,it is essential to dialectically understand market confidence and establish a scientific expectation management system.

关 键 词：市场预期机制 市场信心 预期管理 

分 类 号：F203[经济管理—国民经济]