内涝和外洪遭遇情景下洪水风险要素解耦模拟  

Decoupled simulation of flood risk factors in scenarios of inland inundation and river flood

作　　者：胡勇[1,2,3] 贲鹏 章启兵[1,2] 陈小凤[1,2] HU Yong;BEN Peng;ZHANG Qibing;CHEN Xiaofeng(Anhui and Huaihe River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Hefei 230088,China;Key Laboratory of Water Conservancy and Water Resources of Anhui Province,Bengbu 233000,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院,安徽合肥230088 [2]水利水资源安徽省重点实验室,安徽蚌埠233000 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038

出　　处：《江淮水利科技》2023年第3期37-43,I0002,共8页Jianghuai Water Resources Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51809002);安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院院自主研发项目(KJGG202101)。

摘　　要：特定洪源作用下的洪水风险要素是编制洪水风险图、开展洪水风险管理的基础。在内涝、外洪等多洪源遭遇情景下,因多洪源耦合作用于洪水风险要素,解耦特定洪源作用下的洪水风险要素是洪水风险分析的难点。基于示踪剂法原理,提出内涝和外洪遭遇情景下洪水风险要素解耦方法。该方法是将特定洪源表示为含有标志示踪剂的源汇项,利用溶质运移模型模拟得到标志示踪剂浓度时空变化过程,通过标志示踪剂分布范围解析特定洪源前锋到达时间,将标志示踪剂浓度比例与淹没水深数量积视为特定洪源作用下淹没水深。解耦方法经过理论公式推导,并通过案例实证进行了验证。以淮河干流1991年洪水蒙洼蓄洪区典型进洪过程为例,对蓄洪区启用后区内淹没水深、前锋到达时间等洪水风险要素进行解耦,并绘制了进洪洪水前锋到达时间,以及内涝、进洪洪水作用下淹没水深空间分布图。区内蓄洪量解耦为进洪量和暴雨内涝积水量,第1次进洪结束时,进洪量占蓄洪量的85.47%;第2次进洪结束时,第1次进洪洪水、第2次进洪洪水及内涝水量分别占蓄洪量的26.80%,64.15%,9.05%。在内涝和外洪遭遇情景下,运用该方法能够快速准确提取进洪洪水的前锋到达时间,且能解耦受内涝、进洪洪水等洪源作用下的淹没水深。The flood risk factors under specific flood sources are the basis for developing flood risk maps and conducting flood risk management.Under the condition of multi-source floods encountering,because of the flood risk factors affected by multi-source floods,decoupling the flood risk factors due to the specific flood is difficult.The decoupling method of the characteristics of the multi-source floods encountering scenario,based on the tracer method,use the marker tracer representing the specific flood.The flood arrival time from the specific flood is the zero concentration distribution range of the marker tracer.The water depth due to the specific flood is regarded as the product of the concentration ratio of the marker tracer and the water depth.The decoupling method is deduced by theoretical formula and verified by a case study.In 1991,the Mengwa Flood Storage Area was used to divide and storage the flood from Huaihe River with two separately events,along with a severe inland inundation.The decoupling method was used to distinguish the water depth due to division floods and the inland inundation,and the arrival time of the two events of division floods.At the time of the first division flood came to an end,the flood storage in the Mengwa Flood Storage Area was caused by the division flood accounting for 85.47%.At the time of the second division flood came to an end,the flood storage in the Mengwa Flood Storage Area was caused by the first division flood,the second division flood,and the inland inundation accounting for 26.80%,64.15%,and 9.05%,respectively.In the case,the method can quickly and accurately extract the arrival time of division floods,and the decoupling feature time node is affected by various flood sources.

关 键 词：洪水风险图 洪水前锋到达时间 淹没水深 洪水遭遇 蒙洼蓄洪区 

分 类 号：TV873[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV122