1990—2019年中国生殖器疱疹疾病负担变化趋势与预测分析  

Prediction of the disease burden of genital herpes in China in 1990-2019

作　　者：叶晓雯 杨丽[1] 彭瑞 张凯 YE Xiaowen;YANG Li;PENG Rui;ZHANG Kai(School of Public Health,Weifang Medical University,Weifang,Shandong 261053,China)

机构地区：[1]潍坊医学院公共卫生学院,山东潍坊261053

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2023年第4期26-30,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：山东省卫生和计划生育委员会科技计划项目(2014-12);山东省中医药科技发展计划项目(2017-204);山东省自然基金(ZR2014AQ020)。

摘　　要：目的分析1990—2019年中国生殖器疱疹疾病负担现状与趋势,为生殖器疱疹防治提供理论依据。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担数据库,通过发病率、伤残损失寿命年和伤残调整寿命年等指标进行描述,并采用Joinpoint软件分析中国1990—2019年生殖器疱疹疾病负担的变化趋势,建立自回归积分滑动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)时间序列模型,对中国生殖器疱疹疾病2020—2024年发展趋势进行预测。结果1990—2019年中国生殖器疱疹发病率有下降趋势。发病人群主要集中在15~49岁年龄段,该年龄段伤残调整生命年(disability adjusred life years,DALY)率呈显著上升趋势平均年度变化率(average annual percent change,AAPC)(AAPC=0.73,P<0.001)。50~69岁年龄段呈现出显著上升趋势(AAPC=0.09,P<0.05)。1990—2019年中国生殖器疱疹DALY率总体呈上升趋势,1990—2019年中国女性疾病负担总体高于男性。ARIMA模型预测结果显示,中国生殖器疱疹发病率和DALY率在2020—2024年继续呈增长趋势。结论中国生殖器疱疹疾病负担仍不断呈上升趋势,需加强青中年的安全性行为教育,并积极开展健康教育。Objective To analyze the current situation and trend of genital herpes disease burden in China from 1990 to 2019,and to provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of genital herpes.Methods Using the 2019 Global Burden of Disease database,the trend of the burden of genital herpes disease in China from 1990 to 2019 was analyzed using the Joinpoint software based on the indicators of incidence,disability-adjusted life years(DALY)and disability-lost life years.The ARIMA time series model was established to predict the development trend of genital herpes diseases in China from 2020 to 2024.Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence of genital herpes in China had a downward trend.The incidence of the disease was mainly concentrated in the age group of 15-49 years old,and the DALY rate in this age group showed a significant upward trend(AAPC=0.73,P<0.001).The age group of 50-69 years old showed a significant upward trend(AAPC=0.09,P<0.05).The DALY rate of genital herpes in China showed an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019.Between 1990 and 2019,the overall disease burden of women in China was higher than that of men.The ARIMA model predicted that the incidence of genital herpes and DALY rate in China would continue to increase from 2020 to 2024.Conclusion The disease burden of genital herpes in China is still on the rise.It is necessary to strengthen the safe sexual behavior education and actively carry out health education among young and middle-aged people.

关 键 词：生殖器疱疹 疾病负担 伤残调整损失寿命年 变化趋势 预测 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]