湛江地区干湿气候变化特征及其对水稻、糖蔗和花生产量的影响  

Characteristics of Dry-wet Climate Change and Its Impacts on the Yield of Rice,Sugarcane and Peanut in Zhanjiang Area,Guangdong,China

作　　者：赵宝山 窦美安[2,3,4] 安东升 严程明 马海洋[1] 黄松[5] 苏俊波 ZHAO Baoshan;DOU Meian;AN Dongsheng;YAN Chengming;MA Haiyang;HUANG Song;SU Junbo(South Subtropical Crops Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Zhanjiang,Guangdong 524091,China;Zhanjiang Experimental Station,Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences,Zhanjiang,Guangdong 524091,China;Zhanjiang Experimental and Observation Station for National Long-term Agricultural Green Development,Zhanjiang,Guangdong 524091,China;Guangdong Modern Agriculture Cultivated Land Conservation and Water-saving Agriculture Indus-trial Technology Research and Development Center,Zhanjiang,Guangdong 524091,China;Nanjing Automation Institute of Wa-ter Conservancy and Hydrology,Ministry of Water Resources,Nanjing,Jiangsu 210012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国热带农业科学院南亚热带作物研究所,广东湛江524091 [2]中国热带农业科学院湛江实验站,广东湛江524091 [3]国家农业绿色发展长期固定观测湛江试验站,广东湛江524091 [4]广东省省级现代农业(耕地保育与节水农业)产业技术研发中心,广东湛江524091 [5]水利部南京水利水文自动化研究所,江苏南京210012

出　　处：《热带作物学报》2023年第7期1506-1514,共9页Chinese Journal of Tropical Crops

基　　金：中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(No.1630102022002,No.1630062022004)。

摘　　要：探究地区干湿气候变化特征及其对作物产量的影响,可为气候变化下农业生产规划布局和气象灾害防御提供科学依据。本研究利用1960—2020年湛江地区气象站点逐日地面观测资料以及1990—2020年该地区水稻、糖蔗和花生产量的统计数据,以参考作物蒸散量(ET0)和降水量确定的干燥度指数(AI)为干旱指标,分析该地区干湿气候变化特征,并确定气候变化对3种作物产量的影响。结果表明,湛江地区降水量年际变化波动较大,年平均降水量1534.41 mm,上升趋势不显著;气温以0.18℃/10 a的速率显著上升;年平均ET0和AI分别为1242.72 mm/a和0.87,上升趋势不显著。依据干燥度指数年变化情况,1—4月和10—12月是湛江地区干旱易发生时段。1990—2020年该地区水稻、糖蔗和花生产量呈显著增长趋势,4月干燥度指数升高降低3种作物的产量,5月干燥度指数升高显著提高花生产量,而对水稻和糖蔗产量影响不显著,6月气温升高和降水量减少有利于显著提高水稻和花生产量。糖蔗产量受气温和降水变化的影响不显著,而12月干燥度指数升高显著提升糖蔗产量。本研究结果对湛江及周边地区农业应对气候变化及提高农作物生产潜力具有重要意义。Exploring the characteristics of dry-wet climate change and its impacts on crop yield can provide scientific basis for agricultural production planning and meteorological disaster prevention under climate change.Based on the daily ground observation data of meteorological stations in Zhanjiang area from 1960 to 2020 and the statistical data of rice,sugarcane and peanut yields from 1990 to 2020,the aridity index calculated by reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)and precipitation were used as drought index to analyze the characteristics of dry-wet climate change,and the impact of dry-wet climate change on crop yield was analyzed.The results showed that the interannual variation of pre-cipitation in Zhanjiang area fluctuated greatly,and the annual average precipitation was 1534.41 mm,showing an insig-nificant rising trend.The temperature rised significantly at the rate of 0.18℃/10 a,and the annual average ET0 and aridity index was 1242.72 mm/a and 0.87 respectively,showing an insignificant upward trend.According to the annual variation of the dryness index,from January to April and from October to December were the drought prone periods in Zhanjiang.The yield of rice,sugarcane and peanut showed a significant growth trend in the past 31 years,the increase of aridity index in April would reduce the yield of the three crops.The increase of aridity index in May would signifi-cantly increase the yield of peanut,but had no significant impact on the yield of the other two crops.The increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation in June were conducive to the significant increase of rice and peanut yield.Sugarcane yield was not significantly affected by the change of temperature and precipitation,while the increase of dryness index in December significantly increased sugarcane yield.The results are of great significance for Zhanjiang and its surrounding areas agriculture to cope with climate change and improve the crop potential productivity.

关 键 词：气候变化 参考作物蒸散量 干燥度指数 降水量 作物产量 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]