新型城镇化建设与城投债扩张——基于多期DID的经验证据  

New Urbanization Construction and the Expansion of Urban Investment Bonds:Empirical Evidence Based on Multi-period DID

作　　者：王金涛[1] 岳华[1] WANG Jintao;YUE Hua(School of Economics,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学经济学院,上海200062

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2023年第8期52-67,共16页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：随着新型城镇化建设取得积极进展,随之而来的地方政府债务问题却已构成系统性金融风险的重要隐患。鉴于此,基于新型城镇化试点政策这一准自然实验,利用2009—2020年282个城市的面板数据,采用多期倍差法实证分析了新型城镇化建设对城投债扩张的影响机制与异质性特征。研究发现:新型城镇化试点政策有助于城投债扩张,且经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验等稳健性检验后,该结论依然成立。机制分析表明,新型城镇化建设能够通过提高地方政府竞争和增加土地出让收入的渠道助推城投债扩张。异质性分析表明,新型城镇化建设对城投债的扩张作用不仅在非一线城市(含新一线城市)、中西部地区更加明显,且在人口流出城市和土地利用效率较低的城市也更显著。研究结论对于有序推动新型城镇化高质量发展、妥善化解地方政府债务风险具有重要意义。With the positive progress of new urbanization construction,the problem of local government debt has become an important hidden danger of systemic financial risk.In view of this,based on the pilot policy of quasi-natural experiment of new urbanization,the panel data of 282 cities from 2009 to 2020 are used to empirically analyze the influencing mechanism and heterogeneity characteristics of new urbanization construction on the expansion of urban investment bond by using multi-period DID method.The findings are as follows:The pilot policy of new urbanization is conducive to the expansion of urban investment bonds,and this conclusion still holds after robustness tests such as parallel trend test and placebo test.Mechanism analysis shows that new urbanization construction can promote the expansion of urban investment bonds by improving local government competition and increasing land transfer revenue.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the expansion effect of new urbanization construction on urban investment bonds is not only more obvious in non-first-tier cities(including new first-tier cities)and the central and western regions,but also more significant in cities with population outflow and cities with low land use efficiency.The conclusions are of great significance for promoting the high-quality development of new urbanization in an orderly manner and properly resolving the risk of local government debt.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 城投债 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]