Early estimation of the number of hidden HIV infected subjects: An extended Kalman filter approach  

作　　者：Paolo Di Giamberardino Daniela Iacoviello 

机构地区：[1]Dept.of Computer,Control and Management Engineering,Sapienza,University of Rome,Via Ariosto 25,00185,Rome,Italy

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2023年第2期341-355,共15页传染病建模（英文）

摘　　要：In the last decades several epidemic emergencies have been affecting the world,influencing the social relationships,the economics and the habits.In particular,starting in the early 080,the Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome,AIDS,is representing one of the most worrying sanitary emergency,that has caused up to now more than 25 million of dead patients.The infection is caused by the Human Immunodeficiency Virus,HIV,that may be transmitted by body fluids;therefore with wise behaviours the epidemic spread could rapidly be contained.This sanitary emergency is peculiar for the long incubation time:it can reach even 10 years,a long period in which the individual can unconsciously infect other subjects.The identification of the number of infected unaware people,mandatory to define suitable containment measures,is here obtained by using the extended Kalman filter applied to a noisy model in which,reasonably,only the number of infected diagnosed patients is available.Numerical simulations and real data analysis support the effectiveness of the approach.

关 键 词：Epidemic modeling Infection spread HIV-AIDS Extended Kalman filter 

分 类 号：R51[医药卫生—内科学]