Analysis and simulation of a stochastic COVID-19 model with large-scale nucleic acid detection and isolation measures: A case study of the outbreak in Urumqi, China in August 2022  

作　　者：Ting Zeng Zhidong Teng Ramziya Rifhat Xiaodong Wang Lei Wang Kai Wang 

机构地区：[1]College of Public Health,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,830017,PR China [2]Department of Medical Engineering and Technology,Xinjiang Medical University,Urumqi,830017,PR China

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2023年第2期356-373,共18页传染病建模（英文）

基　　金：approved by the institutional ethics committee of Xinjiang Medical University.(IRB No.:XJYKDXR20221001001);supported by the Natural Science Foundation of XinJiang(Grant Nos.2021D01C268).

摘　　要：In this paper,a stochastic COVID-19 model with large-scale nucleic acid detection and isolation measures is proposed.Firstly,the existence and uniqueness of the global positive solution is obtained.Secondly,threshold criteria for the stochastic extinction and persistence in the mean with probability one are established.Moreover,a sufficient condition for the existence of unique ergodic stationary distribution for any positive solution is also established.Finally,numerical simulations are carried out in combination with real COVID-19 data from Urumqi,China and the theoretical results are verified.

关 键 词：Stochastic COVID-19 model Extinction persistence in the mean Stationary distribution Numerical simulation 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统]