A new method for accurate calculation of case fatality rates during a pandemic:Mathematical deduction based on population-level big data  

作　　者：Jinqi Feng Hui Luo Yi Wu Qian Zhou Rui Qi 

机构地区：[1]School of Public Health,Lanzhou University,222 Tianshui South Road,Lanzhou 730000,China

出　　处：《Infectious Medicine》2023年第2期96-104,共9页感染医学（英文）

摘　　要：Background:During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease,it is difficult to accurately estimate the case fatality rate(CFR)because many calculation methods do not account for the delay between case confirmation and disease outcome.Taking the coronavirus disease-2019(COVID-19)as an example,this study aimed to develop a new method for CFR calculation while the pandemic was ongoing.Methods:We developed a new method for CFR calculation based on the following formula:number of deaths divided by the number of cases T days before,where T is the average delay between case confirmation and disease outcome.An objective law was found using simulated data that states if the hypothesized T is equal to the true T,the calculated real-time CFR remains constant;whereas if the hypothesized T is greater(or smaller)than the true T,the real-time CFR will gradually decrease(or increase)as the days progress until it approaches the true CFR.Results:Based on the discovered law,it was estimated that the true CFR of COVID-19 at the initial stage of the pandemic in China,excluding Hubei Province,was 0.8%;and in Hubei Province,it was 6.6%.The calculated CFRs predicted the death count with almost complete accuracy.Conclusions:The method could be used for the accurate calculation of the true CFR during a pandemic,instead of waiting until the end of the pandemic,whether the pandemic is under control or not.It could provide those involved in outbreak control a clear view of the timeliness of case confirmations.

关 键 词：Case fatality rate COVID-19 PANDEMIC China 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]