WRF模式在福州地区橄榄低温冻害预报预警服务中的应用和检验  

Application and Inspection of WRF Mode in Forecast and Warning Service of Olive Ice Damage in Fuzhou

作　　者：邹小松 王彦朝 张美花 ZOU Xiaosong;WANG Yanzhao;ZHANG Meihua(Fujian Minhou County Meteorological Bureau Fuzhou,Fujian 350000;Cangzhou Meteorological Bureau,Hebei Province Cangzhou,Hebei 350013)

机构地区：[1]福建省闽侯县气象局,福建福州350000 [2]河北省沧州市气象局,河北沧州350013

出　　处：《现代农业研究》2023年第7期144-147,共4页Modern Agriculture Research

摘　　要：本文探讨了WRF模式在福州地区橄榄低温冻害预报预警服务应用中的可行性,主要研究和评估了WRF模式对冷空气过程中温度变化的预报能力,评价WRF模式对冷空气过程中温度预报的模拟效果。本研究使用WRF模式对2022年12月13日08:00—20日08:00、2022年12月21日08:00—27日08:00两次强冷空气过程地面2m温度进行模拟,通过分析WRF模式模拟结果与闽侯国家基本气象观测站气温数据进行对比分析,发现WRF模式可以较好地模拟出冷空气过程中温度的变化趋势,具备准确预报出极端最低气温与极端最低气温出现时间的一定能力,但准确的温度值预报仍有难度,模拟结果与实况观测值相比具有一定的差值。但模拟结果与观测值的离散程度大致相当,这表明在固定的参数条件下,WRF模式对温度的模拟具备一定的稳定性。总的来说,用WRF模式来模拟冷空气过程中温度变化是可行的,对橄榄低温冻害预报预警有一定的预见性,具有进一步的细化研究的价值。This paper discusses the feasibility of application of WRF model in olive cold freezing damage forecast and early warning service in Fuzhou area,mainly studies and evaluates the prediction ability of WRF model on temperature change during cold air process,and evaluates the simulation effect of WRF model on temperature forecast during cold air process.In this study,WRF model was used to simulate 2m surface temperature during two strong cold air processes,from 08:00 on December 13th-08:00 on December 20th,2022,and from 08:00 on December 21th-08:00 on December 27th,2022.By comparing the simulation results of WRF model with the temperature data of Minhou National Basic Meteorological Observation Station,it is found that WRF model can well simulate the temperature change trend during the cold air process and has certain ability to accurately forecast the occurrence time of extreme minimum temperature and extreme minimum temperature,but it is still difficult to accurately forecast the temperature value.There is a certain difference between the simulated results and the real observed ones.However,the dispersion degree of simulation results is roughly equal to the observed values,which indicates that WRF model has a certain stability for temperature simulation under fixed parameter elements.In general,it is feasible to use WRF model to simulate the temperature change during cold air,which has certain predictability for the forecast and early warning of low temperature freezing damage of olive,and has the value of further detailed research.

关 键 词：WRF模式 福州 冷空气过程 低温冻害 

分 类 号：S165.25[农业科学—农业气象学]