北京市重大刑事犯罪时空分布特征与影响因素分析  

Spatio-temporal Characteristics and Influence Factors Analysis of Serious Crimes in Beijing City

作　　者：史安 刘庆芳 宋金平 SHI An;LIU Qingfang;SONG Jinping(Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875

出　　处：《地理空间信息》2023年第7期23-26,64,共5页Geospatial Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上基金资助项目(42171170)。

摘　　要：基于中国裁判文书网,获取北京市2018年8类重大刑事犯罪数据,采用文本分析、空间自相关和相关分析等方法识别犯罪时空分布特征并分析影响因素。结果表明:①2月案件数量减少,夏季强奸案、抢劫案增多,工作日夜晚为案发高峰;②故意杀人案和放火案趋向随机分布,强奸案在城市中心和边缘部分地区均有聚集,故意伤害致人重伤或死亡案、抢劫案聚集于城乡结合部,贩卖毒品案聚集于市中心,总体案件数量从市中心向外先升后降,案件高密度区主要位于城六区;③不同类型犯罪对场所开放状况的需求不同,总体而言随着空间隐蔽度的提高,案件数量呈“U”形变化;④犯罪时空分布特征主要受居民出行规律、犯罪相关因素变化、特定社会经济特征人群分布等因素影响。根据犯罪时空分布特征及其影响因素需制定针对性的防范措施。We searched data of eight kinds of serious crime in 2018 happened in Beijing by China Judgements Online,identified their spatio-tem-poral characteristics by spatial autocorrelation,and analyzed the influence factors of them by text analysis and correlation analysis.The results showed that①amounts of all kinds of criminal cases had a remarkable decrease in February,raping and robbing increased in summer,evenings in weekdays were peak time of crime.②Killing and arson tended to randomly distribute in space,raping tended to gather in the urban center and places around the urban center,intentional injury which causes serious injury or death and robbing tended to gather in urban-rural fringe,and drug offences more likely happened in prosperous areas near the urban center.Generally,the amount of all the cases of the whole city rose first then decreased,from the urban center to rim areas.The high-density areas of cases were mainly located in Dongcheng,Xicheng,Haidian,Chaoy-ang,Fengtai and Shijingshan.③Different kinds of crimes had different needs on public-private condition of crime places.Generally,when places became more public,the number of cases would show a roughly U-shaped pattern.④Above crime spatio-temporal characteristics were influ-enced by travel characteristics of residents,changes of elements which sensitively related to crimes and their success rate,and distribution of groups who have economic and social attributes corresponding to different criminal motives.Targeted preventive measures should be put forward based on spatio-temporal characteristics and influence factors of crime.

关 键 词：刑事犯罪 空间自相关 城市犯罪空间盲区 北京市 

分 类 号：P237[天文地球—摄影测量与遥感] P237[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]