不同闪电参数化方案对海南岛一次强对流闪电过程的数值模拟研究  

Numerical simulation of a strong convective lightning process in Hainan island with different lightning parameterization schemes

作　　者：杨薇[1,2] 李勋[1,2] 林建兴[1,2] 陈有龙[1,2] 杨滨瑜 YANG Wei;LI Xun;LIN Jian-xing;CHEN You-long;YANG Bin-yu(Hainan Meteorological Service,Haikou 570203,China;Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China;Hainan Air Trafic Control Bureau Meteorological Observatory,Haikou 571126,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省气象台,海南海口570203 [2]海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203 [3]海南空管分局气象台,海南海口571126

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2023年第3期20-30,共11页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：海南省气象局科研项目(HNQXJS201802)资助。

摘　　要：利用耦合非感应起电方案和闪电参数化方案的WRF V3.9.1中尺度模式,模拟了2018年6月26日发生在海南岛的一次强对流过程,讨论模式中3种闪电参数化方案(LPI方案、PR92w方案和PR92z方案)对热带岛屿地区闪电活动的模拟能力。结果表明:模式能较好地反演出此次强对流过程的雷达回波特征,垂直速度和水成物粒子是影响模式预报闪电的重要因素,云内发展较强的垂直速度和丰富的冰相粒子有利于云内起电过程的发展。LPI方案和PR92w方案模拟出闪电的分布形式和闪电上正下负的结构,起电区域均位于8~15 km,PR92z方案模拟闪电分散,偏差较大;LPI方案的ETS评分(Equitable Threat Score)表现最优,为0.65;进一步分析LPI值与闪电频数的相关关系发现两者之间具有显著的正相关关系,区域平均LPI与闪电频数相关系数为0.9,拟合优度为0.83。The WRF V3.9.1 mesoscale model coupled with the non-inductive electrification scheme and the lightning parameterization scheme was used to simulate a strong convection process occurred in Hainan Island on June 26,2018.The simulation ability of lightning activity in tropical islands was discussed using three lightning parameterization schemes(LPI scheme,PR92w scheme,PR92z scheme)in the model.The results show that the model can well reproduce the radar echo characteristics of the strong convective process,the vertical velocity and hydrometeor particles are important factors affecting the model prediction of lightning,and the strong vertical velocity and abundant ice particles in the cloud are conducive to the development of the electric process in the cloud.LPI and PR92w schemes reproduce the distribution pattern of lightning and the structure of positive and negative lightning with an electric charge area between 8~15 km,while the lightning simulated by the PR92z scheme shows a scattering pattern,with a large deviation.The Equitable Threat Score(ETS)of the LPI scheme is the best with a value of 0.65.Further analysis of the correlation between LPI and lightning frequency shows that there is a significant positive correlation between them.The correlation coefficient between the regional average LPI and lightning frequency is 0.9,and the goodness of fitting value is 0.83.

关 键 词：LPI(雷电潜势指数) 闪电参数化 WRF模式 强对流天气 闪电预报 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]