“稳增长与防风险”视阈下的最优宏观调控政策搭配——基于政策效果评估和反事实视角  

The Optimal Matching of Macro-Control Policies from the Perspective of“Steady Growth and Risk Prevention”:Based on Policy Effect Evaluation and Counterfactual Perspective

作　　者：陈创练[1,2] 高锡蓉 王浩楠 CHEN Chuanglian;GAO Xirong;WANG Haonan(College of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;Southern China Institute of Finance,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;School of Finance&Investment,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632 [2]暨南大学南方高等金融研究院,广东广州510632 [3]广东金融学院金融与投资学院,广东广州510521

出　　处：《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第4期50-63,共14页Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22ZDA050)。

摘　　要：推动经济高质量发展是实施宏观调控的根本要求,防范金融风险也成为近年来政策实施的重要目标。通过构建多目标货币政策和财政政策模型系统以及宏观调控政策模型,结合时变参数结构向量自回归模型和马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法估计价格型和数量型货币政策以及财政政策盯住经济周期、通货膨胀和金融风险周期三类目标的时变政策取向和政策效果,并基于反事实方法得到调控三类目标的最优宏观调控政策搭配。结果表明:(1)货币政策有逆周期调控经济稳定、物价稳定和金融稳定的政策偏好,而财政政策对三类目标调控的政策取向会随着三类目标在某一时刻的重要性不断进行调整;(2)从政策效果看,价格型货币政策对三类目标有明显的调控作用,而数量型货币政策和财政政策随着政策目标的转变,效果会有强弱差异;(3)从反事实结果看,总体上,只有财政政策和货币政策协调配合才能够使得调控经济周期、通货膨胀和金融风险周期目标的政策效果最大化。因此,应充分发挥不同货币政策规则的优势和财政政策在调控宏观经济运行上的主动性和灵活性,注重货币政策和财政政策的协调搭配。Entering a new pattern of economic development,maintaining sustained economic development and preventing and resolving systemic risks remain the top priorities of macro-control policies.Traditional monetary or fiscal policy frameworks are difficult to achieve a balanced balance of multiple objectives.In particular,monetary and fiscal policies have not included financial stability in regulatory rules,and there are significant deficiencies in preventing systemic risks and maintaining financial stability.The outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis made scholars and policymakers aware of the importance of establishing and improving macro-control frameworks that can balance multiple objectives.This paper constructs a multi-objective monetary and fiscal policy model system and a macro-control policy model,and selects China’s macroeconomic data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2020.By combining the TVP-SVAR model and Markov chain Monte Carlo method,we estimate the time-varying policy orientation and policy effects of price and quantity monetary policies,as well as fiscal policies targeting economic cycles,inflation,and financial risk cycles.Finally,based on the counterfactual method,we evaluate the optimal combination of macroeconomic regulation policies for the three types of regulatory objectives.The research results indicate that:(1)monetary policy has a policy preference for countercyclical regulation of economic stability,price stability,and financial stability,while fiscal policy has a time-varying feature in regulating the three objectives,and the policy orientation will continuously adjust and balance with the importance and severity of the three objectives at a certain moment.(2)From the perspective of policy effectiveness,price based monetary policy has a significant regulatory effect on the three types of goals,while quantity based monetary policy and fiscal policy will have differences in policy effectiveness with the transformation of policy objectives.(3)From the counterfactual resul

关 键 词：货币政策 财政政策 金融风险 宏观调控 政策目标 政策效果 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学] F832