吐鲁番葡萄春季霜冻气象指标研究  

Research on Spring Frost Meteorological Indexes of Grapes in Turpan

作　　者：黄娟 谷然 王曼 顾雅文 HUANG Juan;GU Ran;WANG Man;GU Ya-wen(Xinjiang Xingnong Network Information Center,Urumqi 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆兴农网信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第5期116-121,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区科学技术厅青年基金项目(2021D01B91);2022年度新疆“三农”骨干人才培养项目(2022SNGGCY 055);国家自然科学基金项目(41775109)。

摘　　要：基于吐鲁番市1991-2021年葡萄春季霜冻发生的经济数据、产量数据、气象资料、历史灾害等数据资料,采用线性分离法分离趋势产量,引入灾损率概念定量评估了霜冻灾害损失,将气象要素、对应的气象产量、灾损率分别构建了多元线性回归模型,同时考虑到最低气温和地面最低温度的双因子共同作用,构建了吐鲁番葡萄春季霜冻灾害等级。结果表明:(1)线性分离法分离趋势产量后筛选出的典型灾害年份为2001、2002、2003、2005、2011、2014年,运用灾损率分析减产从严重到不严重的年份依次为2001、2011、1990、2003、2002、2005、2000、1991、2014、2017、2016、2004年。(2)影响吐鲁番市鲜食葡萄春季霜冻的气象因子为日最低气温、地面最低温度、霜冻持续日数,葡萄霜冻受灾减产的临界值为日最低气温4.4℃,地面最低温度-0.6℃。(3)吐鲁番葡萄春季霜冻气象指标等级:轻度为0℃<V_(1)≤4.4℃且-2.0℃<V_(3)≤-0.6℃;中度为0℃<V_(1)≤4.4℃且-4.0℃<V_(3)≤-2.0℃,-2.0℃<V_(1)≤0℃且-2.0℃<V_(3)≤-0.6℃,-2.0℃<V_(1)≤0℃且-4.0℃<V_(3)≤-2.0℃;重度为-4.0℃<V_(1)≤-2.0℃且V_(3)≤-0.6℃,V_(3)≤-4.0℃且V_(1)≤4.4℃,其中,V_(1)为日最低气温,V_(3)为地面最低温度。经验证,霜冻计算分级结果与实际发生灾情相符,与灾损率的计算结果相符。研究气象因子与鲜食葡萄春季霜冻的关系,以期为鲜食葡萄霜冻的致灾原理研究及新疆鲜食葡萄防灾减灾提供科学参考依据。Based on the collection and collation of economic data,yield data,meteorological data,and historical disaster data on the occurrence of grape spring frost in Turpan City from 1991 to 2021,the linear trend method was used to separate trend yields,and the concept of disaster damage rate was introduced to quantitatively assess frost disaster losses.A multiple regression equation was constructed by meteorological factors,relative meteorological yield,and disaster damage rate.At the same time,taking into account the“dual factors”of minimum temperature and minimum ground temperature,the spring frost disaster level of grapes in Turpan was constructed.The results showed that:(1)The typical disaster years selected by linear separation method after separating trend production were 2001,2002,2003,2005,2011 and 2014.By the disaster damage rate analysis,the years of production reduction from severe to non severe were 2001,2011,1990,2003,2002,2005,2000,1991,2014,2017,2016 and 2004.(2)The meteorological factors affecting the spring frost of fresh grape in Turpan City were daily minimum temperature,ground minimum temperature and the days of frost duration.The critical value of grape yield reduction due to frost damage were the daily minimum temperature of 4.4℃,and the ground minimum temperature of-0.6℃.(3)The meteorological index grade of spring frost on grapes in Turpan were mild 0℃<V_(1)≤4.4℃&-2.0℃<V_(3)≤-0.6℃,moderate 0℃<V_(1)≤4.4℃&-4.0℃<V_(3)≤-2.0℃,-2.0℃<V_(1)≤0℃&-2.0℃<V_(3)≤-0.6℃,-2.0℃<V_(1)≤0℃&-4.0℃<V_(3)≤-2.0℃,and severe-4.0℃<V_(1)≤-2.0℃&V_(3)≤-0.6℃,V_(3)≤-4.0℃&V_(1)≤4.4℃,where V_(1) is the daily minimum temperature and V_(3) is the ground minimum temperature.After verification,the frost calculation and grading results are consistent with the actual disaster situation and the disaster damage rate calculation results.The relationship between meteorological factors and spring frost of table grapes was studied in order to provide scientific reference f

关 键 词：鲜食葡萄 春季霜冻 灾损率 线性分离法 趋势产量 气象指标 

分 类 号：S425[农业科学—植物保护]