大豆单产水平的时空演变及收敛特征——基于东北大豆产区141个县域面板数据  

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Convergence Characteristics of Soybean Yield per Unit Area Based on Panel Data of 141 Counties in Northeast China

作　　者：辛戈 张德硕 林德荣 XIN Ge;ZHANG De-shuo;LIN De-rong(College of Economics and Management(Cooperative College),Qingdao Agricultural University,Qingdao 266109,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛农业大学经济管理学院(合作社学院),山东青岛266109

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第5期172-179,共8页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：山东省杂粮产业技术体系“产业经济岗位专家项目”(SDAIT-15-07)。

摘　　要：基于2013—2021年东北大豆产区141个县域的面板数据,运用Kernel密度估计、Markov链及收敛模型等分析了东北大豆产区大豆单产水平的时空演变及收敛特征。结果表明:东北大豆产区的大豆单产水平呈现出先增后减的时序特征,大豆单产水平的稳定性差,波动剧烈;黑龙江、吉林、辽宁这3省存在单极化趋势,东北大豆产区全样本、内蒙古存在多极化趋势和空间非均衡特征。高水平地区数量增加,由“点状分布”向“带状分布”演进。收敛性分析显示,东北大豆产区及各省域均不存在σ收敛,但存在显著的绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,表明要素禀赋与生产条件对大豆单产水平的收敛性有显著影响。Based on the panel data of 141 counties in the Northeast soybean production areas from 2013 to 2021,Kernel density estimation,Markov chain and convergence model were used to investigate the spatio-temporal evolution and convergence characteristics of soybean production level in the northeast soybean production areas.The results showed that the soybean production level in Northeast soybean producing areas showed a sequential feature of“first increase and then decrease”,and the soybean production level had poor stability and severe fluctuation.There were unipolar trends in Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning,and multipolar trends and spatial disequilibrium characteristics in Northeast soybean producing areas and Inner Mongolia.The number of high-level areas increased,from“dot distribution”to“zonal distribution”evolution.The convergence analysis showed that there was noσconvergence in soybean producing areas and provinces in Northeast China,but there were significant absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence,indicating that factor endowment and production conditions had a significant effect on the convergence of soybean yield per unit area.

关 键 词：东北大豆产区 大豆单产水平 Kernel密度估计 MARKOV链 Β收敛 

分 类 号：F326.12[经济管理—产业经济]