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作 者:张龙 袁鹏鹏 Zhang Long;Yuan Pengpeng(School of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;China Guangfa Bank,Guangzhou 510062,China)
机构地区:[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632 [2]广发银行总行,广东广州510062
出 处:《金融理论探索》2023年第4期20-30,共11页Exploration of Financial Theory
基 金:中国博士后科学基金面上项目“商业银行贷款市场报价机制与行为优化研究”(2022M720862)。
摘 要:在规则性货币政策占领历史舞台数十年后,近来相机抉择货币政策在各国央行中出现抬头现象,说明相机抉择和规则性货币政策的相对有效性具有动态性,以往基于不变参数模型研究的相机抉择和规则性货币政策的长期不变有效性严重缺乏实际经济意义。基于此,本文构建了时变参数结构模型,并基于“动态”宏观调控的视角数值模拟了不同经济状态下相机抉择和规则性货币政策的动态有效性。研究结果发现:第一,总需求冲击在经济高涨时期影响较大,规则性货币政策更有效;在经济萧条时期影响较小,相机抉择货币政策更有效;第二,总供给冲击无论在经济高涨时期还是经济萧条时期都会带来产出和通货膨胀调控的两难选择,但规则性货币政策在经济高涨时期相对更能有效应对总供给冲击,相机抉择货币政策在经济萧条时期相对更能有效应对总供给冲击。随着我国进入经济新常态时期,量化宽松的相机抉择货币政策将是中国央行未来一段时间的较好选择。Since the rule-based monetary policy have occupied the historical stage for decades,the discretionary monetary policy has appeared in many countries’Central Bank recently,which indicating that the relative effectiveness of policy rules and discretion is dynamic.So,the usual conclusion is lack of economic meaning,which resulting from constant parameter model and in which the policy rules and discretion have the fixed effectiveness.Therefore,this paper improves the total supply-demand model by using the Markov Chains method to construct a time-varying structure model,and simulates the relative effectiveness of policy rules and discretion in different economic periods,which is based on the social welfare effect.It is found that,first,the impact of aggregate demand is greater in the period of economic upsurge,and the rule-based monetary policy is more effective;In the period of economic recession,the impact is small,and the discretionary monetary policy is more effective.Second,the aggregate supply shock will bring about the dilemma of output and inflation control in both the economic boom period and the economic recession period.However,the rule-based monetary policy is relatively more effective in dealing with the aggregate supply shock in the economic boom period,and the discretionary monetary policy is relatively more effective in dealing with the aggregate supply shock in the economic recession period.At the end,it is believed that,with China entering a new normal period of economy,the discretionary quantitative easing monetary policy will be a better choice for the Central Bank of China in the future time.
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