1961—2021年粤港澳大湾区暴雨气候变化特征  

Climate change characteristics of rainstorm in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao region Greater Bay Area from 1961 to 2021

作　　者：张柳红 伍红雨[1] 向昆仑 杨小佳 史丽 ZHANG Liuhong;WU Hongyu;XIANG Kunlun;YANG Xiaojia;SHI Li(Climate Center of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510640,China;Guangdong Ecological Meteorology Center,Guangzhou 510640,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广东广州510640 [2]广东省生态气象中心,广东广州510640

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）》2023年第4期32-44,共13页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金(2020A1515110423);国家自然科学基金气象联合基金(U2142205);2022年度省级灾害防治及应急管理专项;广东省气象局科研项目(GRMC2019Z01,GRMC2020M10,GRMC2020Q05,GRMC2022M07);广东省气象局科技创新团队项目(GRMCTD202005)。

摘　　要：基于1961—2021年粤港澳大湾区31个国家气象观测站逐日降水资料,采用线性趋势分析、趋势系数计算、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法分析了大湾区年及前、后汛期的暴雨日数、暴雨量、暴雨强度和暴雨贡献率的气候特征及变化。结果表明,近61 a大湾区平均年暴雨日数和大暴雨日数分别为8.3 d和1.8 d,有87%的暴雨发生在汛期,其中前、后汛期各占47%和40%。近61 a大湾区31个站平均的年及前、后汛期暴雨日数、暴雨量、暴雨贡献率、暴雨强度的变化趋势均不明显,但广州、怀集、斗门等6个站暴雨量变化趋势显著。大湾区年及前、后汛期暴雨日数及其变化速率均高于广东省同期。香港地区、澳门地区和广州的暴雨特征对比分析显示,香港地区近61 a平均暴雨量、暴雨日数、暴雨强度和暴雨贡献率均为最大,澳门地区次之,广州最小,但广州年和前汛期暴雨量、暴雨日数及前汛期暴雨贡献率的变化速率最大。Based on the daily precipitation data of 31 meteorological monitoring stations from 1961 to 2021 in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,the annual and seasonal(in the early and later flood seasons,respectively) characteristics and variation of torrential rain days,storm rainfall,rainstorm intensity,and contributions are analyzed by a combination of multi-methods,such as linear regression analysis,computation of trend coefficients and Mann-Kendall test.The results show that the annual mean torrential rain days and extremely heavy rainstorm days during 1961-2021in the Greater Bay Area are separately 8.3 days and 1.8 days.About 87% of the total torrential rain days occur in the flood seasons with about 47% in the first season and 40% in the second season.The mean torrential rain days,storm rainfall,rainstorm intensity,and the rainstorm contribution of 31meteorological monitoring stations of a year,the early flood season,and the later flood season in recent 61 years tend to change faintly,while the mean storm rainfall of six stations,such as Guangzhou,Huaiji and Doumen,show significant variations.The mean torrential rain days and their change rates of a year,the early flood season,and the later flood season in the Greater Bay Area are higher than that of Guangdong Province.After comparing the characteristics of storm rainfall in Hong Kong region,Macao region,and Guangzhou from 1961 to 2021,the values of mean torrential rain days,storm rainfall,rainstorm intensity and contribution are the largest in Hong Kong region,followed by Macao region and Guangzhou.However,Guangzhou shows maximum rates of change of annual storm rainfall and torrential rain days and rainstorm contribution in the early flood season.

关 键 词：暴雨 气候特征 气候变化 粤港澳大湾区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]