中欧班列运行对区域产业结构优化的影响研究——基于DID与SDID的实证分析  

Research on the Impact of the CR Express Operation on Regional Industrial Structure Optimization——Empirical Analysis Based on DID and SDID

作　　者：李杰[1] 刘清 Li Jie;Liu Qing(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,成都610000

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2023年第8期99-110,共12页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新时代建设现代化经济体系的理论依据及指标体系构建研究”(项目编号:18XKS009)。

摘　　要：本文基于我国高质量低碳发展的战略导向要求,构建产业结构高级化、合理化、生态化三维指标,采用多期DID、SDID方法检验中欧班列运行对我国产业结构优化的影响。研究发现,中欧班列运行对区域产业结构高级化、合理化、生态化均存在显著正效应,且主要通过外贸驱动机制和要素驱动机制作用于区域产业结构优化。异质性分析发现,中欧班列引致的产业结构高级化效应主要集中在低经济发展水平城市,产业结构合理化、生态化效应则在高经济发展水平城市更为明显;同时相较于低人力资本水平城市,中欧班列引致的产业结构高级化、合理化、生态化促进效应均集中在高人力资本水平城市范围。进一步研究发现,中欧班列运行对地理邻域、行政邻域存在产业结构优化空间溢出效应,且前者空间溢出效应大于后者;目前中欧班列引致的产业结构优化空间溢出效应具体表现为促进邻域产业结构合理化,抑制邻域产业结构高级化和生态化。Based on the strategic orientation requirements of China’s high-quality and low-carbon development,the paper constructs a three-dimensional index including industrial structure advancement(ISA),rationalization(ISR)and ecologicaliza⁃tion(ISE).At the same time,the paper uses the multi-period DID and SDID methods to test the effect and mechanism of CR Ex⁃press on China’s industrial structure optimization.The research results show that CR Express operation has a significant positive effect on ISA,ISR and ISE,and it is mainly driven by foreign trade and factor aggregation.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the effect of ISA is mainly concentrated in cities with low economic development level,while the effects of the ISR and ISE are more ob⁃vious in cities with high economic development level.At the same time,the promotion effects of ISA,ISR and ISE are concentrated in cities with high human capital levels.In addition,CR Express has spatial spillover effect on industrial structure optimization in geographical neighborhood and administrative neighborhood,and the spatial spillover effect of the former is greater than that of the latter.At present,the spatial spillover effect of industrial structure optimization is embodied in promoting ISR of neighborhood and inhibiting ISA and ISE of neighborhood.

关 键 词：中欧班列 交通基础设施 高质量发展 双重差分 产业结构优化 空间溢出效应 

分 类 号：F121.3[经济管理—世界经济] F511.3