北半球人体不舒适天数归因分析及其未来预估  

Attribution analysis of human discomfort days in the Northern Hemisphere and their prediction in the future

作　　者：李万玲 郝鑫 LI Wanling;HAO Xin(School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Nansen-Zhu International Research Center,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学教育部气象灾害预测与评价协同创新中心/气象灾害重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所竺可桢-南森国际研究中心,北京100029

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2023年第4期561-574,共14页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：广东省基础与应用基础研究重大项目(2020B0301030004);国家自然科学基金资助项目(42005014);江苏省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201910300095Y)。

摘　　要：基于NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及6个CMIP6全球气候模式模拟资料,对1961—2014年北半球湿热指数表征的热不舒适天数与风寒指数表征的冷不舒适天数历史变化进行归因分析,并预估未来(2015—2100年)4种不同情景下不舒适天数的变化趋势。结果表明:历史时期北半球中低(中高)纬度地区热(冷)不舒适天数偏多且不舒适天数显著增加(减少)。其中,高纬度(中纬度)地区能够检测到历史全强迫,人为强迫和温室气体强迫的影响,且温室气体强迫主导了冷(热)不舒适天数变化。低纬度地区,热不舒适天数显著增加可归因于人为温室气体强迫作用,气溶胶强迫能够产生相反的作用降低热不舒适的发生率,冷不舒适天数则受气候系统内部的调控作用。未来热(冷)不舒适天数将持续增加(减少),其中ssp585与ssp370情景下舒适度变化显著,ssp126与ssp245情景下,2080年后北半球人类遭受的冷热不舒适感将维持在稳定的水平。This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variation of heat discomfort days characterized by Humidex and cold discomfort days represented by Wind Chill Index in different latitudes(high latitudes,middle latitudes,and low latitudes)of the northern hemisphere during 1961—2014,using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and simulations from six CMIP6 models.The investigation focuses on the attribution of these discomfort days.The results show a significant increase in the frequency of heat discomfort in the middle and low latitudes,and a significant decrease in the frequency of cold discomfort in the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere.Furthermore,using the optimal fingerprint method,we find that the increased frequency of heat discomfort in middle latitude and the decreased frequency of cold discomfort in high latitude can be attributed to ALL,ANT,and GHG forcings,with GHG forcing dominating changes in the frequency of heat discomfort in mid-latitude areas and the frequency of cold discomfort in high-latitude areas.In the low latitudes,the significant increase in the frequency of heat discomfort can be attributed to anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing,while AER has the opposite effect.The frequency of cold discomfort may be attributed to the internal variability of the climate system.In the future,the frequency of heat(cold)discomfort in the middle and low latitudes(middle and high latitudes)is expected to increase(decrease)under the uncoordinated and rapid development with higher radiative forcing.However,low radiative forcing and sustainable development can ensure a stable level of human comfort.

关 键 词：人体舒适度 湿热指数 风寒指数 温室气体 气溶胶 人为强迫 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]