西北地区陆地生态系统未来生态需水量预估  

Prediction of future ecological water demand of terrestrial ecosystem in Northwest China

作　　者：粟晓玲[1,2] 刘雨翰 姜田亮 吴海江 刘轩 梁晓萱 SU Xiaoling;LIU Yuhan;JIANG Tianliang;WU Haijiang;LIU Xuan;LIANG Xiaoxuan(College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;Key Laboratory for Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid Area of Ministry of Education,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第4期9-18,78,共11页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52079111,51879222)。

摘　　要：采用偏差校正空间分解(BCSD)法对CMIP6的5个GCMs数据进行降尺度处理,基于考虑CO_(2)浓度影响的Penman-Monteith公式与有效降水计算方法,结合单作物系数法与saxton方程,预估了中等强迫(SSP2-4.5)和高强迫(SSP5-8.5)气候情景下西北地区生态需水量与生态缺水量的变化。结果表明:西北地区未来生态需水量在SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下分别以3.83亿、6.95亿m^(3)/a的趋势上升;21世纪末期(2070—2100年)SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下年生态需水量均值分别为5679亿、5881亿m^(3),年有效降水量均值分别为3985亿、4106亿m^(3),年生态缺水量均值分别为1732亿、1798亿m^(3);西北地区整体上处于水分亏缺状态,缺水格点占比为60.2%,主要分布在新疆北部和西部、青海中部以及陕西、甘肃、宁夏的绝大部分区域。Using Northwest China as the research area,the bias correction and spatial disaggregation(BCSD)method was used to downscale the five GCMs data of CMIP6.Based on the Penman Monteith formula considering the impact of CO_(2) concentration and the effective precipitation calculation method,combined with the single crop coefficient method and the saxton equation,the changes in ecological water demand and ecological water deficit in Northwest China were estimated under moderate forcing(SSP2-4.5)and high forcing(SSP5-8.5)climate scenarios.The results show that the future ecological water demand in Northwest China is increasing at 3.83×108 m^(3)/a and 6.95×108 m^(3)/a under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respectively.In the late 21st century(from 2070 to 2100),under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the average annual ecological water demand will be 5.679×1011 m^(3) and 5.881×1011 m^(3),respectively,the average annual effective precipitation will be 3.985×1011 m^(3)and 4.106×1011 m^(3),respectively,and the average annual ecological water shortage will be 1.732×1011 m^(3) and 1.798×1011 m^(3),respectively.Northwest China is in a state of water shortage as a whole,with 60.2%of the grid points lacking water,which is mainly distributed in the north and west of Xinjiang,the middle of Qinghai,and most regions of Shaanxi,Gansu,and Ningxia.

关 键 词：气候变化 生态需水量 生态缺水量 有效降水量 CMIP6 西北地区 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]