海河流域干旱时空演变及其与气候因子的关系  

Spatial and temporal evolution of drought and its relationship with climate factors in the Haihe River Basin

作　　者：关不了 姜珊[1] 赵勇[1] 李海红[1] 董义阳 常奂宇 何国华[1] 韩昕雪琦 GUAN Buliao;JIANG Shan;ZHAO Yong;LI Haihong;DONG Yiyang;CHANG Huanyu;HE Guohua;HAN Xinxueqi(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Water Conservancy and Construction Engineering,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084 [3]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第4期59-68,共10页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金项目(52025093);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(51809282)。

摘　　要：以标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)作为干旱反映指标,运用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法分析海河流域及站点的干旱变化情况,采用经验正交函数分析法解析海河流域干旱分布的主要模态,并通过交叉小波变换和皮尔逊相关分析探究年尺度、季尺度、月尺度下太阳黑子及大尺度环流因子与海河流域干旱的相关关系。结果表明:1960—2017年海河流域SPEI在年尺度、季尺度、月尺度下分别以每10 a下降0.16、0.015和0.004的速率向干旱化发展;海河流域干旱分布第一模态为全域统一分布型,第二模态为南—北反向分布型,反映了纬度对干旱分布的影响;大气环流因子中的Ni o3.4与海河流域干旱有较强的相关关系(年、季尺度下为负相关,月尺度下为正相关),而太阳黑子与海河流域干旱呈明显负相关,并对海河流域干旱事件有着深远影响。With the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)used as the drought reflection index,the Mann-Kendall(M-K)trend test was used to analyze the drought change of the Haihe River Basin,the empirical orthogonal function analysis method was used to analyze main modes of drought distribution,and cross wavelet transform and Pearson correlation analysis were adopted to study the correlations between sunspots,large-scale circulation factors,and drought in the Haihe River Basin on monthly,seasonal,and annual scales,respectively.The results show that from 1960 to 2017,the Haihe River Basin developed to aridity,with SPEI decreasing 0.16 per decade on annual scale,0.015 per decade on seasonal scale,and 0.004 per decade on monthly scale,respectively;the first mode of drought distribution of the Haihe River Basin was the global uniform distribution pattern,and the second mode was the south-north inverse distribution pattern,reflecting the influence of latitude on the drought distribution;among the atmospheric circulation factors,Ni o3.4 has a high correlation with drought in the Haihe River Basin(with negative correlation on the annual and seasonal scales and positive correlation on monthly scale),and sunspots have a significantly negative correlation with drought in the Haihe River Basin and also have a profound impact on the occurrence of drought events in the Haihe River Basin.

关 键 词：干旱 SPEI 交叉小波变换 大气环流因子 太阳黑子 海河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]