基于Tapio和LMDI模型的沁河流域碳排放与水资源利用脱钩关系分析  

Analysis of decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and water resources utilization in the Qinhe River Basin based on Tapio and LMDI models

作　　者：纪义虎 左其亭[1,2,3] 马军霞 JI Yihu;ZUO Qiting;MA Junxia(School of Water Conservancy and Transportation,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection&Regional Coordinated Development,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Henan International Joint Laboratory of Water Cycle Simulation and Environmental Protection,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学水利与交通学院,河南郑州450001 [2]郑州大学黄河生态保护与区域协调发展研究院,河南郑州450001 [3]河南省水循环模拟与水环境保护国际联合实验室,河南郑州450001

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第4期94-101,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279027);国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200201);河南省重大公益性项目(201300311500)。

摘　　要：在界定沁河流域研究范围和对沁河流域碳排放趋势特征分析的基础上,采用Tapio脱钩模型分析了碳排放与水资源利用的脱钩关系,并采用LMDI模型分析影响碳排放的主要驱动因素。结果表明:沁河流域整体碳排放呈现波动增长态势,但碳排放增长率波动下降;沁河流域碳排放与水资源利用多数时间处于强负脱钩和扩张负脱钩状态,但逐渐出现强脱钩与弱脱钩状态,水碳关系逐渐向好;水资源利用效应和碳排放强度效应是驱动沁河流域碳排放增长的主要因素,用水效益效应是驱动碳排放减少的主要因素,碳排放强度效应与供水结构效应驱动效果逐渐变得更为显著。On the basis of defining the research scope of the Qinhe River Basin and analyzing the trend characteristics of carbon emissions in the Qinhe River Basin,the Tapio decoupling model was used to analyze the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and water resource utilization.The LMDI model was used to analyze the main driving factors of carbon emissions.The results show that the overall carbon emissions in the Qinhe River Basin show a fluctuating upward trend,but the fluctuation of carbon emission growth rate decreases.The carbon emissions and water resource utilization in the Qinhe River Basin have been in a state of strong negative decoupling and expanded negative decoupling in the most of the time.The gradual emergence of strong and weak decoupling states indicates that the relationship between water and carbon was gradually improved.Water resource utilization effect and carbon emission intensity effect are the main factors driving the increase of carbon emissions in the Qinhe River Basin,while the water efficiency effect is the main factor driving the reduction of carbon emissions.The driving effects of carbon emission intensity effect and water supply structure effect gradually become more significant.

关 键 词：水资源利用 碳排放 Tapio脱钩模型 LMDI模型 沁河流域 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]