基于水文水动力模型的洪泽湖汛末蓄水策略智能优化设计  

Intelligent optimization design of water storage strategy for post-flood period of Hongze Lake based on hydrological-hydrodynamic model

作　　者：崔璨 董增川[1] 罗赟[1,2] 张天衍 韩亚雷 杨婕 石晴宜 童建 郭玉法[4] CUI Can;DONG Zengchuan;LUO Yun;ZHANG Tianyan;HAN Yalei;YANG Jie;SHI Qingyi;TONG Jian;GUO Yufa(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Hangzhou Qiantang District Water Conservancy Development Service Center,Hangzhou 311222,China;Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]黄河水利科学研究院,河南郑州450003 [3]杭州市钱塘区水利发展服务中心,浙江杭州311222 [4]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第4期143-151,共9页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：江苏省水利科技基金项目(2019003);国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1508200)。

摘　　要：针对洪泽湖丰水年汛末蓄水中蓄水时机与蓄水方案之间、防洪目标与蓄水目标之间的双重博弈,基于水文水动力模型精细化的仿真能力及枚举蓄水策略与数值模拟相结合的思路,构建了“时-量-标”三维映射关系,将水文水动力模型与NSGA-Ⅱ多目标优化模型相耦合,提取了汛末多闸门组合下泄的最优调控规则。结果表明:丰水年湖泊防洪风险与蓄水效益之间的Pareto竞争关系较为明显,两目标可以通过置换关系相互补偿;典型丰水年2003年洪泽湖汛末蓄水策略的全局最优解为9月20日起蓄,将蓄水调度规则中13.00 m水位所对应的闸门下泄总量由1600 m^(3)/s提升至2213 m^(3)/s,在降低防洪风险的同时可减少弃水损失。Aiming at the dual games between impounding time and water storage schemes,flood control target and storage benefit target for the water storage problem of Hongze Lake in post-flood period in high-flow years,a three-dimensional“time-discharge-index”mapping relationship was constructed based on the refined simulation with the hydrological-hydrody namic model and the idea of combining enumeration water storage strategies and numerical simulation.By coupling of the hydrological-hydrodynamic model with the NSGA-II multi-objective optimal model,optimal regulation rules for discharge under multi-gate combination in post-flood period were extracted.The results show that there is an obvious Pareto competition relationship between flood control risk and water storage benefits in high-flow years,and the two objectives can compensate each other through the replacement relationship.According to the obtained global optimal solution of the water storage strategy for Hongze Lake in post-flood period in a typical high-flow year of 2003,the impoundment should start from September 20th,and the discharge volume is recommended to increase from 1600 m^(3)/s to 2213 m^(3)/s corresponding to the water level of 13.00 m,which can decrease the flood control risk as well as the abandoned water loss.

关 键 词：洪水资源化 汛末蓄水调度 多目标优化 水文水动力学模型 机器学习 洪泽湖 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]